On Sunday, the latest instalment in Mayo’s quest for All-Ireland glory takes place in Croke Park, with a potentially gripping semi-final against Kerry – a team considered to have something of a hoodoo over the Connacht side.

Of course, truth be told, most teams think they have a hoodoo over Mayo in recent years – something Mayo supporters might think is a little unfair. And they’d be right, as their form since James Horan took charge is highly impressive. Put simply, you have to go through Mayo to win an All-Ireland these days. They have won their provincial championship four years in a row and in that time they have taken the scalps of serious teams like Cork (twice), Donegal, Down, Tyrone and Dublin – but not Kerry.

The most recent history between them saw the Kingdom blow them out of the water in two All-Ireland finals in the late noughties. Back in 2011, Horan’s first year at the helm, Kerry won a semi-final by nine points, 1-20 to 1-11, after Mayo had beaten then All-Ireland champions Cork.

Apart from a Mayo semi-final success back in 1996 when John Maughan’s side beat a poor Kerry team (including Maurice Fitzgerald) 2-13 to 1-10, Mayo haven’t really raised a gallop when faced with the Kerry jersey. All-Ireland finals of 2004 and 2006 were lost by eight and 13 points. I was at both finals and both were over before half-time.

That’s the first issue Mayo have to put to bed on Sunday. They have to compete. They have to get into this game early and they have to stay in it. Say what you want about Mayo, and many will, they have a very decent All-Ireland semi-final record. You do not get to lose four All-Ireland finals in the last 10 years without first winning your semi-final. That’s a decent record but Kerry have won seven semi-finals in that time.

The time has arrived for this Mayo team. They have to topple the Kingdom and finally believe that this is their year. Defeat on Sunday is unthinkable for a side that has been building towards this championship for four solid years. Losing the last two All-Ireland finals puts them in with the Cork hurlers of 1982 and 1983 (they won in 1984), the Galway hurlers of 1985 and 1986 (they won in 1987), the Cork footballers of 1987 and 1988 (they won in 1989). A team cannot endure coming so close three years in a row and not getting there. Can they?

(Actually, Mayo have done this before, losing the All-Ireland finals of 1996, after a replay, and 1997. They didn’t win in 1998 but were shocked by Galway in Connacht, who went on to beat Kildare in the final.)

The Connacht champions have a very strong panel, possibly the best they have brought to Croke Park before self doubt and Meath’s sheer force of will cost them the 1996 finals. They are exceedingly well managed, clearly well coached by the highly rated Donie Buckley and have added a consistency that used to desert them. Footballers like the O’Shea bothers, Andy Moran, Cillian O’Connor, Keith Higgins, Lee Keegan, Kevin McLoughlin, Ger Cafferky, Enda Varley, Alan Dillon, Donal Vaughan and Barry Moran ensure there are no weak lines and their bench has serious depth.

But they are running out of time. The law of diminishing returns will inevitably put a dent in Horan’s effectiveness. The supporters have already been through numerous wringers. It has to end. Beating Kerry in Croke Park would be huge and probably sustain them another year if ultimate victory is not achieved in September, but this squad and management probably starts to fragment if they fall this weekend. The stakes are huge.

Kingdom confidence

Then we have Kerry. Written off earlier in the year, they arrive into Croke Park unbeaten and apparently yet to go through the gears. There’s no Gooch, there’s no Star (but on the bench), gone are two of the Ó Sés, Eoin Brosnan and Paul Galvin, yet here they are.

The man that has brought renewed optimism to their supporters is James O’Donoghue, who has racked up 1-15 from play in his last two games. He has revelled in Cooper’s absence and remade Kerry as a team to be feared. They know something about the value of a killer forward in the Kingdom and don’t win All-Irelands without one. O’Donoghue is following in the footsteps of Sheedy, Egan, Fitzgerald and Gooch to name just four. But he has yet to win a Celtic cross and unless you have enough of them to make a jangling sound in your pocket, there won’t be many offering to buy you a drink at the Puck Fair.

O’Donoghue’s credentials will be tested on Sunday. He will be double and treble teamed. He will get attention he has not yet enjoyed this year. If he still manages to turn the game Kerry’s way, then he is for real.

Of course, the Kingdom bring more than one player. Declan O’Sullivan, like one or two other forwards, is experiencing a little more room and freedom since O’Donoghue’s arrival on the scene and he is a dangerous man when carrying the ball. Paul Geaney, recent sub Barry John Keane, Donnacha Walsh and Bryan Sheehan are all capable, free-scoring men.

Anthony Maher has been strong at midfield and he’ll have his work cut out with the trafficking O’Sheas on Sunday. But that’s a contest that will be won on the ground scavenging for ball, and that’s a job for half-backs and half-forwards.

How will it go? I think that’s down to the Kerry backs. They are a little unproven at this level, although the wily Aidan O’Mahony and Marc Ó Sé do bring cuteness to the full-back line. The same can’t be said about the half-back line, although Killian Young has been around a while. Paul Murphy and captain Fionn Fitzgerald are new enough to this type of cauldron and that’s what it will be. It is here that Mayo can reap and sow. Possibly.

The importance of this game might only really be understood in about five years’ time because I believe the winners will go on to win more than one All-Ireland in the next few years. Both can be that good.

I’m unabashedly going for Mayo. It must be their time. Surely. Please God let it be their time. I can’t take much more of this and I’m not even from the county. Roll on Sunday.