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Scottish farmers are waiting with baited breath for the makeup of the next UK Government. A Conservative-led coalition will enter Brexit negotiations in a weak position, which could lead to increased compromises. However, if these compromises will or won’t be to Scottish farming’s benefit remains to be seen.
EU deal
The clock is ticking on Brexit, and Scotland farmers will need some form of deal with the EU. Export-led producers, like sheep farmers, will be anxious about any potentially weak government failing to secure a deal on trade before the UK leaves the EU. This could see prices plummet if sheep meat cannot get into high-value markets. Furthermore, farmers will want to know how a new government can handle negotiating with countries or trading blocs with significantly cheaper produce. With such a short time until the UK leave the EU, the pressure is on to ensure Scottish producers are not left out in the cold and weakened government will not help the situation.
Meanwhile, experts are indicating that the pound could fall giving a boost to farm gate prices, albeit only in the short term.
Election
Whilst the Conservatives had a poor night across England and Wales, they made significant gains in Scotland. Despite winning the popular vote, the SNP lost 22 seats at the expense of the other major parties. The Unionist parties had a good night in Scotland, with Conservatives up 12 seats, Labour up six and the Lib Dems up three. This will be a significant blow to a second independence referendum. Yet another twist in an already dramatic election.
The arithmetic means that the Conservatives will need a coalition with another party to gain a majority. If this fails, then Labour could look for partners to form a government. If no coalition is able to be formed, the Conservatives could try to run the country with a minority government. Finally, the country could go back to the polls, so a majority government can be formed. All of these options have significant impact on Scottish farmers on how key issues like Brexit, trade relations and farm support are handled.
Negotiations
Farmers are watching intently as negotiations develop to see if policies like the Tory’s promise to maintain farm funding for the duration of the next parliament make it onto the new governments to-do list. Meanwhile, the level of autonomy Scotland has to develop its own farm policy will be vital to planning the type of support coming for the government.
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