The much talked about Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada takes effect provisionally this week. Like all trade deals, there is much merit in parts of CETA. However, as is often the case, agriculture provides the sticking point. From an Irish farmer’s perspective, our most vulnerable sector is further exposed.

CETA provides for Canadian access to the EU market of up to 50,000 tonnes of tariff-free beef by 2022. In return, the EU has tariff-free access to the Canadian market for beef and a nominal 18,000t dairy quota. However, such is the strength of the Canadian dairy industry, that this quota comes with strings attached. Basically, they will retain control of a large portion of this with less than half of it open to new entrants.

The problem with the EU giving beef access to EU markets is that the EU is a market in which consumption is declining and we are unable to consume our own production.

Whatever about CETA with its two-way deal, a trade issue of greater concern is on the horizon. The EU-Mercosur trade talks, which have been going off and on since 1999, now look as if they are coming to a conclusion. There was outrage in May last year when it became known that EU officials were contemplating an offer of a 78,000t beef quota to the Mercosur countries.

Since then, we have had the Cumulative Impact Assessment that indicated the EU beef industry would be a loser in an EU-Mercosur trade deal. This was followed by the decision of Ireland’s main beef export market to leave the EU and all of a sudden the threat to Irish Beef farmers is multiplied.

European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan has been consistent in his message about expectations of countries exporting agricultural produce having to be realistic in their ambitions for access to the EU market. However, last week, there was another push in Brussels to make an offer on beef ahead of the next round of discussions in Brazil in October. Ireland, along with 11 other countries, pushed back on this successfully, but the issue will return to the table in coming weeks.

In the wake of Brexit, the EU27 could be forced to accommodate up to 250,000t of Irish beef along with a further 80,000t from other EU countries currently exporting to the UK. When we add this to commitments already made by the EU, it is clear that there is simply no further capacity in the EU to absorb more beef and that includes making an offer to Mercosur.