October milk supplies continued the above-quota trend that was established from the start of the new quota year.

Milk supplies have dropped in some co-ops over the last week, but the scale of the oversupply situation relative to quota means something very unusual would need to happen to pull the country back under quota.

Some experts thought October supplies would reduce, but our figures show in fact the opposite happened, and October milk was greater than October 2013 supplies.

October is the seventh month of the final quota year and given the quota positions of the co-ops in our survey, it seems almost certain Ireland will finish over quota nationally.

Heavy rain in the last few days has slowed milk for the first time this year, in some co-ops, but the expected large-scale October/November dry-off has only started on some farms and is not widespread. Some once-a-day milking is taking place, but the effect on volumes is relatively small.

Ten of the major processors are touching 10% over quota. The other three are Wexford (7% over), Kerry (4% or 33m litres over) and Aurivo (3% over quota).

Co-op results

The big three, Glanbia, Kerry and Dairygold, all report they are well over quota. Glanbia is now 8%, or 76m litres, over quota, and while November supplies are back, they are still on a par with last year.

Dairygold reports it is 9.2% over quota and while wet weather is leading to a drop in volumes, supplies are greater than 10% per week. At the moment, the co-op remains well over quota, with little likelihood of that changing. Kerry estimates it is 4% over, which equates to 33m litres compared to 16m litres under this time last year. That’s a swing of almost 50m litres in a year.

Arrabawn estimates it will end October about 10% over quota, with October supplies up 6%. In the last week, Arrabawn recorded a lower supply than the same week last year for the first time this year.

Near neighbour Centenary Thurles estimates it will end October 10% over quota also. November supplies are back 2%, but that will have little effect overall.

In the north and northwWest, Aurivo reports it is 3% over quota year-to-date with no drop-off in October supplies.

Lakeland reports it is 6.5% up in October and ended the month 9.5% over quota for October.

In west Cork, Barryroe October supplies were the same as the previous year and it ended October 9% over. Drinagh co-op milk estimates October supplies were up again and they ended the month 9.75% over. Lisavaird estimates November supplies to date are 8% down on same week but October was up 11% so it ended the month 9% over.