Grain prices continued downward for the past week, with December MATIF wheat down €6.50/t and November LIFFE feed wheat down by over €3/t. And in the US, Chicago maize for September fell €5/t from the end of April to €127/t last Tuesday. And Chicago September wheat fell from €162/t at the end of April to €154/t last Monday.

There was a slight turn in the market this week – upwards for a change. It applies to new-crop mainly and is driven by an initial crop inspection of the potential of the forthcoming US wheat crop. This news has reversed the price decline of recent weeks, but the effect may only be transitory, as market fundamentals are broadly the same as they were.

There is little doubt but that it will take a big weather event to reverse current anticipation of a big harvest, but such things have often happened in the past.

The price drops are very evident in the Irish market this week too. Lack of a need, or willingness, to buy makes real prices difficult to impossible yet again, but spot wheat is valued in the €173 to €175/t bracket, leaving most sellers unwilling to sell and buyers unable or unwilling to buy. Barley prices are back about €5/t also, and even more difficult to sell, in the €155 to €160/t bracket.

The prospect of a big harvest now means that new-crop prices for November are broadly the same as spot prices. So dry wheat is somewhere around €173 to €175/t, which would equate to around €140/t green at harvest, and dry barley somewhere in the €155 to €160/t range (€120 to €125/t green). Last weekend, Dairygold offered its growers €123 for green barley for harvest and €141/t for green wheat – an €18/t price difference.