Grain prices have weakened over the past week. This is part-harvest, part-international weather and part-funds. Markets remain nervous on maize and soya.

MATIF December futures wheat dropped €8/t in the past week from €187.25/t at close of business last Tuesday week to €179.25/t this Tuesday. This was mainly in response to supply information, currency, weather and funds. Recent crop condition information from the US may have halted the decline, but there is no major upwards recovery. Chicago December wheat futures price fell from a close of $5.762 per bushel at close of business last Tuesday week to €5.264/bu on Tuesday of this week.

Physical prices react much less than futures because they live in the gap between real sellers and real buyers. Recent news of high yields in Russia add to current harvest pressure. It seems likely that serious problems will need to emerge in maize production to push up physical prices, as buyers believe that total supply will still be more than adequate and that there is no justifiable reason for a sustained price increase.

The drop in native forward prices was reflected on Monday in Glanbia’s offer of €131 for green barley and €144 for wheat for harvest. Other co-op offers since then put green barley back at €125/t.

Native prices are very difficult. Barley is anything from €155 to €165/t out to November, with wheat around €180/t. November wheat price would appear to be in the €175 to €180/t bracket.