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Ongoing concerns over weather continue to help grain prices. But this time we may be moving to a trend rather than a price spike.
This remains a quality wheat supply issue which is now pulling up the whole grain complex. If quality grains are in short supply, this brings a bigger demand for other wheat classes, which could mean other feed grains will be needed to supply these slots. There is still little to indicate a scarcity of feed grains, so the market must maintain some level of balance.
Sentiment
Such is the sentiment on quality wheat that some US markets have risen by 40% in recent weeks. EU price increases have been much lower but they may be catching up. EU grain supplies appear tight and if this can tick the quality box then there may be opportunity to export higher volumes of EU quality wheat.
Irish prices
Native prices are currently higher than they were in the spike of recent weeks. The gap between spot and new crop has been removed, thus removing the fear of a big drop to new crop. Spot wheat appears to be in short supply but it was trading recently in the €180/t to €185/t bracket, with barley at €165/t to €166/t to the trade. New crop November prices are now broadly similar, with barley holding these values despite the ongoing harvest. May 2018 prices are around €185/t to €188/t for wheat with barley around €170/t.
On Tuesday Glanbia offered its growers €146/t for green wheat and €134/t for green barley, similar to 20 June last.
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