Lukasz Wyrzykowski of the IFCN set an optimistic tone to the start of the Dairy Industry conference in London yesterday.

Speaking to about 100 attendees from all over the world, he said he expects milk price average across the world to end up between $33 and $36 per 100kg energy corrected milk for 2017 and, if dairy stocks become exhausted, you could see 2018 prices start to increase.

Lukasz called on the industry to get better at monitoring real-time data as some milk prices and mechanisms to send signals to farmers need to be improved in order to control milk supply better.

“Look at the price of product from 2015 to 2017 – in the US it’s about $9.2/100kg higher than the world average. Germany and France, again, are both higher.

“Then you have areas like China and Russia that are disconnected from global prices and, hence, you get uneven or delayed responses on milk supply globally.”

Supply and demand

On the supply and demand balance act that determines milk prices for traded dairy products, he said there is no doubt but that milk supply is recovering from the periods when milk price was very low – “the milk is coming”.

However, with no extra import demand foreseen, he expects the world milk price should be at least stable, especially if supply is not growing in the main dairy-exporting regions.

Conference

About 100 guests from all over the world gathered at the annual Dairy Industry Newsletter (DIN) conference in London this week. With speakers participating from all over the world, the conference allows those listening to gauge the temperature of dairy markets and movers.

There will be more updates from the conference online this week and in print next week. Sophie Helaine is the first speaker this morning from the EU Commission.

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