International grain prices spent another week bouncing around to end up in broadly the same place. There was a positive response in wheat following the USDA figures, but, ultimately, prices settled back in the continuing belief that global supply will be more than adequate. These figures suggest that there will be significantly less wheat in the US, but global stocks are still forecasted to rise.

The recent AHDB report cautions that global wheat stocks are not so comfortable when Chinese stocks are excluded. This means that there will be continued sensitivity to weather events in that market. EU production estimates are up for wheat and barley, despite recent dryness issues. However, it can take time for positive factors to work through the market if they are real.

For the moment, the market is mainly a stand-off. Sellers wait for news that will rise the market, while buyers wait for an event that may collapse it. The big South American maize harvest is just one example of what buyers are watching and wondering when this will come to the market.

Nearby native prices remain broadly similar due to tight supply in Europe, but there has been a softening on new crop. Old-crop wheat is currently priced to the trade at around €180 to €182/t, with barley at €165 to €170/t. New-crop wheat is now closer to €171 to €172/t, with barley at €160 to €162/t. This week, Glanbia offered €172 and €162/t for dry wheat and barley for November. In early May, these were €176 and €164/t.