A closely watched forecast by Japan has confirmed the return of EL Nino this year.

This will be the first appearance of the EL Nino weather phenomenon in five years. The last time the El Nino weather phenomenon occurred, it brought the worst drought in four decades to India. It also razed wheat fields in Australia, damaged crops across Asia and caused a worldwide surge in food prices.

The report predicts that a strong El Nino this year would "roil economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture, particularly India, which is already reeling from bad weather. It would also unhinge supply chains of commodities such as rice, corn and palm oil."

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El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and it can lead to scorching weather across Asia, parts of Australia and east Africa. In contrast, it tends to lead to heavy rains and floods in South America. The effect of El Nino on weather in Europe and Ireland is less clear.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has said this year's EL Nino arrived in the spring and is likely to continue into autumn. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has predicted the phenomenon is going to continue to strengthen.