Grain prices remain under considerable pressure as early harvest indications and recent stock estimates point to high overall supply for the year ahead. While much of the world’s grain remains to be harvested, we are now in wheat and barley harvest and good yields are being reported. From here on, it will take some form of disaster to prevent some of this crop from being harvested.

The output from the higher maize area remains less certain. Some areas in the US are suffering drought, while other regions had good early season moisture levels. However, with pollination now under way, the crop remains particularly sensitive to high temperatures, which can damage seed-set. For this reason, markets are particularly sensitive to forecasts around this time.

We are now in harvest pressure and crop estimates continue to increase. This makes crops more difficult to sell as buyers hold out for lower prices in the future. Most prices and values tend to be nominal. Wheat remains very competitive compared to maize, but the gap is narrowing as maize attempts to buy back demand.

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While futures are generally down, our native physical crop values remain broadly similar to last week. While the real value of spot wheat and barley might be regarded as €160 and €150/t respectively, there is little or no business taking place at these price levels. Seller do not want to sell and buyers do not want to buy.

Indeed, one might argue that there is little or no market activity at the moment.