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Teagasc says the expected decrease is a result of a combination of reduced areas (-7%) and lower yields.
It adds that the main trends are that yields are mixed. So winter barley and winter oilseed rape yields are "generally disappointing", whereas winter wheat and earlier sown spring barley yields are "holding well".
According to the estimates, winter barely will produce an average yield of 8.6t/ha in 2016 compared with an average yield of 10.2t/ha in 2015, leading to a drop of roughly 90,000t (-13%) in terms of production.
However, winter wheat will be down less at 32,000t (-5%).
Grain quality has also been mixed, says Teagasc, with low hectolitre weights in many winter barleys and skinning (loss of some of the grain hull) reported in malting barleys.
Prices remain low due to supply exceeding demand and high worldwide stocks of small grains and maize.
Planning for 2016/17
So far in Ireland harvest is approximately 30% to 50% complete, depending on the area of the country. Significant areas are still to be harvested in the midlands, north east and north of the country and larger growers are now being forced into harvesting at higher moistures to
reduce the amount to be harvested.
Teagasc says that planning for the 2016/17 winter cereal season is "well under way despite the poor outlook". It recommends a selection of varieties as a way of "spreading workload and harvest capacity".
A final harvest report will be published by Teagasc in December.
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