We now know for certain that Enda Kenny is stepping down as Taoiseach. The Fine Gael party leader is being allowed the space to leave at a time of his own choosing, provided he chooses a date by mid-April.

One aspect of the process that has so far gone under the radar is that for the first time, ordinary citizens – the 26,000 rank-and-file members of the Fine Gael party – will be centrally involved in the direct election of a Taoiseach.

Fianna Fáil have made clear that they will facilitate the election as Taoiseach of whoever succeeds Kenny as Fine Gael leader.

Fine Gael’s parliamentary party includes 50 TDs, 18 senators and four MEPs – a total of 72. They hold 65% of the vote. Fine Gael’s 232 county councillors have a further 10%.

This leaves rank-and-file members of the party with a pivotal 25% of the overall vote. In a close race, it’s this grassroots vote that will decide who becomes the next leader of the country. And it’s looking like it will be a close race, with Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney quickly emerging as the two leading candidates.

A RED C poll at the weekend puts Varadkar holding a 29% to 27% lead among the general public.

The perception is that Simon Coveney will dominate the rural vote, but farmer TDs Pat Deering and Michael D’Arcy are among those who are backing Varadkar. Both camps are reporting strong support from constituency meetings.

Fine Gael will be hoping the new leader can restore the party’s fortunes, with most people in Dáil Éireann braced for an election before the end of the year.

Fine Gael may never again be as vulnerable as they were last week, but Fianna Fáil has been consistently polling strongly for months, and Sinn Féin are clearly the third force in Irish politics.