Assuming that the pollsters are correct and the Tories win the next UK general election, the content of the Tory party manifesto is probably worth noting.

One of the key commitments is that if they are re-elected, they will maintain the same cash total in funds for farm support to the end of the next parliament. Assuming a full-term Government, that would be 2022, and most likely cover payments claimed in 2021.

Interestingly, the manifesto commitment gives an assurance about the money, not on how it will be divided.

So where does that leave farmers? So far we have been guaranteed that the Government would maintain the current system of direct payments to 2020, which effectively means the payment claimed in 2019.

After that it is possible that the current system will be gradually phased out as we transition to a new arrangement. In their manifesto, the Tories talk about introducing a new agri-environment system after 2022. There is no mention of any other form of direct payment.

While an agri-environment payment could be an important way of supporting incomes in marginal areas, and preventing land abandonment, it would need to be fundamentally different to the wider-level Environmental Farming Scheme dreamed up in NI. That scheme just about covers cost, and would do little to encourage farmers to stay on the land.

Productive areas

We must also not forget about those farming more productive areas in NI. On page 26, Downpatrick farmer Allan Chambers puts forward a view worthy of consideration, suggesting that money should also be targeted at efficient and productive farmers. Surely his idea would be a better outcome than the likes of insurance schemes or capital grants that ultimately could be of limited value in many sectors.

But more fundamentally, whatever is devised must be relatively simple to administer, as past experience tells us that when we in NI over-complicate things (eg allowing landowners to claim direct payments) it can come back to haunt the industry down the line.