WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate) has lowered its US milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018.

Slow growth in milk per cow is effectively cancelling out increases in dairy cow numbers.

It expects dairy exports to rise, following the recent trend and driven by competitive prices for cheese.

Fat-based exports for 2017 are raised from the previous WASDE report, based on higher butter and anhydrous milk fat shipments.

Fat-based imports are unchanged, but skim solid based exports are lowered for 2017 due to weaker than expected whey sales.

For 2018, the forecast for fat exports is raised on the back of higher shipments of a number of dairy products. Fat imports are lowered slightly, but export predictions for skim solids are higher due to expected stronger non-fat dry milk (NFDM) sales and other dairy products.

Butter and cheese price forecasts are raised for 2017 and 2018 as demand strength is expected to carry into 2018. The 2017 and 2018 NFDM and whey price forecasts are down from the July report on weak demand.

Class III (milk for cheese production) milk price forecast remains unchanged for 2017 but has been lowered for 2018 as lower whey prices are expected to offset any improvement in cheese prices.

Class IV (milk for butter and skim milk) milk price forecast is raised for the rest of 2017 and 2018 as USDA expects strong butter prices to offset lower skim milk prices.

The all milk price, which is equivalent to Irish average creamery milk price, is forecast to be between $17.80 (33.35 c/l) and $18 (33.73 c/l) per 100 pounds.

The 2018 all milk price is unchanged at a range between $18 (33.73 c/l) and $19 (35.6 c/l) per 100 pounds.

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