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With the British prime minister, Theresa May, now authorised by both British houses of parliament to commence the exit process from the EU, it is now a case of waiting until she chooses her moment.
It was thought it could have happened in the days since the vote, but she has held off with the thought being she will leave it now until the end of March.
The announcement by the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, that she is seeking another referendum on independence, along with the ongoing stalemate between the Northern Ireland parties, suggests there are tensions within the UK at present. This perhaps contributed to the decision to delay the formal start of the Brexit process.
Meanwhile, in Brussels this week there is an air of business as usual, though much of the business is off-site with the monthly relocation to Strasbourg by MEPs. While the Brexit negotiators wait for the action to start, the Commission is in the business of pursuing other trade deals with what appears renewed vigour. Negotiators are preparing for the next round of Mercosur talks in Buenos Aires next week. Following the outcry last spring when the Commission contemplated offering a 78,000t beef import quota, there has been little detail of offers or possible offers since it was withdrawn. Little detail is available at the EU end on what will be debated next week but there is plenty of expectation in South America on the long-running talks picking up some momentum.
Elsewhere, Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström has concluded the scoping exercise with New Zealand (NZ) that was started last year. Detail remains vague, though there is a commitment by both the EU and NZ to respect each other’s sensitivities on agriculture. Sheep farmers in particular will have an interest in this one as NZ has already a huge tariff quota for sales to the EU, which is a carryover from the UK joining back in 1973. NZ had huge access to the UK market back then and this was spread to the wider EU and will of course be part of the Brexit discussions with the UK in negotiations.
The stalled discussions with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) also look like they are returning to life having been mothballed sine 2009. ASEAN countries have a loose federation arrangement between them to facilitate trade but retain their own independence to undertake bilateral deals. To date, the EU has concluded deals with Singapore and Vietnam, though not yet ratified, while negotiations have started with Indonesia and the Philippines. The Philippines is one of Ireland’s most important third-country beef markets, though it takes a tiny quantity of beef in the context of overall exports. Northern Ireland recently hosted a Philippine inspection team as part of the process of securing UK approval for beef exports to this market.
Returning to Brexit
The pursuit of these negotiations does create the impression of business as usual and third countries are anxious to emphasise the priority of doing a deal with the EU irrespective of how well disposed they are to the UK, as is the case particularly with NZ. However, the impending Brexit discussions still cast a shadow over the EU, though over some more than others depending on level of trade exposure.
The Friends of Europe, a Brussels-based think tank geared towards the development of Europe, produced a policy document written by Mogens Peter Carl,a former director-general for trade and environment. This outlines how both the EU and UK could and should approach the negotiation based on his decades of negotiation experience. As is widely suggested elsewhere, he also believes it will be a tough, complex negotiation, and he seeks to outline how compromises and timetables can be achieved with proper goodwill. He also identifies how negotiations can go wrong and how each side’s interpretation of the other can contribute to hostility and a bad environment for making a good trade deal.
A year ago, Irish farmers were greatly concerned about the implications of a Mercosur deal and the Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment (TTIP) discussions with the US. Since the election of President Donald Trump, the already struggling TTIP discussions are on hold with Brexit, the greatest threat to Irish agricultural exports in a generation, moving to centre stage.
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