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While some people believe the EU may disintegrate following the decision of the UK to leave, the former secretary general of the EU commission for a decade says the rest of the EU will stick together.
In Catherine Day’s view, all other member states of the EU have economic, political or historic reasons for staying together and have done so since its foundation, despite their much chequered histories.
She says the UK “never really joined emotionally”, and that for the UK it was always about the common market.
She predicts that we will see a much more integrated EU in the future. However, it will be a much less visionary and much more pragmatic process of integration. She outlines that the EU has to come up with new solutions to overcome current challenges.
Firstly she outlines that the euro is not in a stable place. This will require deeper integration if it is going to survive. With the UK leaving, she believes all other member states will join the euro over time, while at the same time the entry conditions will have to be high and higher than they were initially.
“The EU is going to have to step up to the plate and pay more financially,” says Day. She outlines that the EU budget is very small, being only 1% of the union’s GDP. With the UK leaving, it will take 15%-17% of the budget with it, which she says will leave a big hole. She believes this will lead to a rethink of certain EU policies and lead to a debate of what it should pay for and what it should not.
Over time, she says the budget will probably look more like that of a federal country. The EU budget will pay for Europe-wide elements such as border control, immigration issues and security. She also says the EU will have to pay more to developing countries internationally.
She believes the EU will miss the UK and that the UK helped keep the EU open. It is a big challenge for Ireland as we were very comfortable with decisions made by the UK around the EU table, especially as they had a pro-business approach.
“The EU will become less inward looking,” she says, adding that “it spent the last 10 to 15 years being self-absorbed due to the economic crisis and issues such as the Lisbon treaty.”
It therefore became much less responsive to the rest of the world and “the rest of the world hasn’t really waited,” according to Day.
Threats
She doesn’t think the future of the EU will be easy and sees big threats, such as the rise of nationalism in several EU states and growing extreme right wing parties. She says that the migration crisis is even bigger than the economic one as it is difficult to find a way out.
She believes Ireland should invest more in its relationship with the EU. On Brexit, she feels the EU will be pragmatic and says that following the initial shock, “the EU has gotten over it”.
She says we need a deeper debate here at home. After all, she says: “We are a small island off a bigger island that is cut off from the rest of the EU.”
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