All futures prices fell last week in view of forecasts that generally indicate good prospects for the coming harvest. Dryness concerns for US wheat had helped support prices recently, but forecasts for rain have changed that. Maize sentiment continues to be hit by supply pressure from south American harvest pressure and big crops there.

While futures prices have certainly dropped (MATIF wheat fell from €176.5 to €170.5/t recently), it is possible that price levels are still stronger than they might be as everybody watches for the prospective planting intentions of US growers. The decisions of US growers will affect both maize and soya markets, as the acres normally swop between these two crops.

Estimates for the 2017 Russian wheat crop indicate a significant 10.8Mt drop on last year, but French harvest is likely to be up by that amount, neutralising any benefit.

Oilseed futures prices are also under pressure as global supply estimates for soya beans weigh heavily on sentiment. And with the US likely to have record plantings, it is hardly surprising that vegetable oil and oilseed rape prices have weakened. November rape is now back to €378 to €380/t.

Physical prices have begun to follow down futures and native prices reflect this too. Spot wheat has slipped back into the €175 to €177/t range, with barley holding around €163 to €165/t, but demand is generally filled for spot positions. May prices are slightly higher, but back a little, with wheat €178 to €180/t and barley €163 to €165/t. November prices are back with wheat €168 to €170/t and barley €159 to €160/t.