Winter barley sowing: next year's grain prices are forecast to drop. \ Philip Doyle
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Tillage farms were the only ones to see their income increase this year, according to Teagasc. Despite a 23% drop in production caused by falling yields and, to a smaller extent, sown area, a 30% to 40% increase in prices made up for the small harvest.
“Seventy-eight per cent of cereal farmers had a positive net margin in 2018,” said Teagasc economist Fiona Thorne. Spring barley and beans were the only crops returning lower margins than last year.
Normal trends
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While it will be March before early 2019 harvest forecasts become available, a return to normal trends in the major grain producing regions of the world can be expected to cause a 20% price drop next year, said Thorne. Meanwhile, tillage will be the only sector to see a rise in costs, driven by fertiliser. As a results, margins will be squeezed again. “This will leave one-third of our tillage farmers in negative territory in 2019,” with family farm incomes forecast to drop below 2017 levels.
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Tillage farms were the only ones to see their income increase this year, according to Teagasc. Despite a 23% drop in production caused by falling yields and, to a smaller extent, sown area, a 30% to 40% increase in prices made up for the small harvest.
“Seventy-eight per cent of cereal farmers had a positive net margin in 2018,” said Teagasc economist Fiona Thorne. Spring barley and beans were the only crops returning lower margins than last year.
Normal trends
While it will be March before early 2019 harvest forecasts become available, a return to normal trends in the major grain producing regions of the world can be expected to cause a 20% price drop next year, said Thorne. Meanwhile, tillage will be the only sector to see a rise in costs, driven by fertiliser. As a results, margins will be squeezed again. “This will leave one-third of our tillage farmers in negative territory in 2019,” with family farm incomes forecast to drop below 2017 levels.
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