Prior to the global pandemic, the growth in food being consumed outside the home appeared unstoppable.

There has been a proliferation in all types of dining opportunities offering a food choice at every time of the day.

Even what had been originally food retail businesses were transforming themselves with a deli counter that offered hot and cold food options that could be consumed either onsite or as a takeaway.

Coffee chains and sandwich bars offered an informal hospitality opportunity, while formal restaurants offered the full main meal facility.

The USA had reached a point where half of all food was consumed outside the family home and by 2019 in Ireland, the split of food purchases was 62.5% retail (Bord Bia/Kantar) and 37.5% food service (Bord Bia, Technomic).

Retail purchases were €10.5bn while out-of-home food expenditure was €6.3bn and increasing year on year.

Impact of pandemic

This pattern of consumer food purchases has been completely reversed.

Bord Bia/Kantar retail spend data shows an increase of 11% in expenditure to €11.9bn, but a collapse in out-of-home food consumption to €3.3bn, almost half what it was the previous year.

This now means that 78% of food is purchased for home consumption and just 22% has been consumed outside.

The explanation, of course, is that this is because of the pandemic. We had complete lockdown over Easter and the spring bank holidays, which meant a closure of hospitality and food service outlets.

Additionally, as workplaces closed, so also did the opportunity to purchase coffees and lunches.

Even when there was a partial reopening during the summer, the hospitality sector was restricted by separation requirements and hours of operation.

Impact on meat and dairy

While business has been lost by the reduction in out-of-home eating, there have been significant gains with the increase in retail.

In the meat, fish and poultry category, retail demand increased in Ireland from €1.70bn last year to €1.83bn this year, a 7% increase, while dairy sales in retail increased from €1.12bn to €1.25bn, a 10% increase.

The creation of time for consumers caused by lockdown and working from home meant demand for meal ingredients as opposed to lifting something ready to eat on the move.

Future trends

It will be interesting to observe if this has just been an interruption in consumer food consumption trends that will revert to the previous pattern whenever a vaccine enables life return to normal.

No doubt there will be a huge desire to socialise again and major food consuming events will return.

However, there is a view that home working will remain and less people will commute to city and town centre offices on as frequent a basis.

If this happens, then much of the morning breakfast, coffee and snack trade may be lost or at least reduced in the longer term.

Either way, there will remain a demand for food and the importance of farmers producing the raw material remains, irrespective of its route to consumers.

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