Combining data from existing ESRI forecasts on the export losses from a hard Brexit scenario and the 2016 census recording people’s place and sector of work, IBEC warned this week that rural regions were most at risk of rising unemployment. The Irish Farmers Journal has obtained county-by-county data confirming this rural-urban divide.

In all counties, the size of the agri-food sector is the main contributor to risk exposure. This is especially true in Cavan and Monaghan, the two counties most exposed, where employment in agriculture and food represents around 18% of all jobs. The large numbers of milk and meat-processing plants involved in intense trading with both Northern Ireland and Britain in border counties puts many jobs there on the frontline of Brexit.

The hard Brexit scenario modelled by IBEC would see trade with the UK hit by WTO tariffs, other barriers, such as administrative delays, and a 10% fall in the value of sterling. The business lobby group said this week that this would also result in an annual drop in farmgate revenue of €3,000 per farm.

Editorial: Brexit exposure is not equal across the country

Map: jobs at risk of a hard Brexit in your county

As reported in this week's Irish Farmers Journal, a study of the sectors most at risk from the worst-case Brexit scenario shows nearly one in seven jobs are on the line. How many are in your county?