The effect of China’s tariffs on out-of-quota beef imports has had a big effect on Brazil’s beef exports in July.
The 1.1m tonne quota has essentially been filled with beef that has either landed – or is in transit – and as a result, in July, shipments fell by 47% compared with July 2025, to 85,800 tonnes, according to data published by ABIEC, the association that represents Brazil’s beef exporters.
Notwithstanding the large drop in volume, China remained, by a considerable distance, Brazil’s largest beef export market last month. Overall Brazilian beef exports for the month of July were down 16.1%, compared with last year, to 264,400 tonnes.
While beef exports to China declined in July, they increased to the next four largest export markets.
The US continued as its second largest beef export market, taking 28,900 tonnes in July, a 9.7% increase on a year earlier and there was a smaller increase in exports to Mexico, rising by 4.5% to 12,400 tonnes for the month.
There was a surge in beef exports to Chile, up 50.2% compared with July 2025, to 19,200 tonnes.
European Union
What will be of most interest to Irish farmers is Brazil's increase in exports to the EU.
In July, the volume increased to 12,500 tonnes, which is 52.6% higher than July last year.
Europe is a market for the high-value beef cuts so there isn’t so much a rerouting of product. A more likely explanation is that with a suspension of imports likely to be imposed by the EU from September, Brazilian traders are looking to maximise sales in the time that remains.
Year to date
Despite the slowdown last month, Brazil’s beef exports for the year to date are still running well ahead of last year.
Overall just under 2m tonnes have been exported, a 9.9% increase on the same period in 2025.
China was the destination for 880,300 tonnes, followed by the US on 233,800 tonnes, a 17.1% increase year on year.
Chile is its third largest market so far in 2026, taking 89,000 tonnes, up 29.8% year on year – followed by Russia on 74,300 tonnes and then the EU on 63,700 tonnes, a 10.4% increase on the same period last year.
Brazil’s beef exports had been forecast to decline this year by USDA – yet up to the end of July, they are running almost 10% ahead of last year’s record volumes.
However, there has been an element of front loading of exports to China by companies trying to get maximum use of the quota before it was filled.
That means there could be a substantial drop off in exports to that market for the remainder of this year, though they are likely to pick up towards the end of 2026 as production recommences exports to China, when the 2027 quota opens.
For Irish farmers, there has been increasing competition from Brazilian beef in the EU and UK market in 2026.
If the EU suspension of beef imports from Brazil goes ahead in September, the next twist could be Brazil increasing beef exports to the UK instead.
If its volumes increase there, that would have a greater impact on Irish beef producers and exporters than Brazil being shut out of EU markets.
Brazil’s dominance of global beef trade to increase further