Ireland continues to be the UK’s largest supplier of imported beef by a distance in 2025, but non-EU countries are growing their market share. As Figure 1 shows, the UK imported 110,694 tonnes (t) of beef from Ireland in the first eight months of this year. This is almost 10,000t less than in the same period last year and the Irish share of UK beef imports has fallen from 76% of total imports to 70%.

AHDB data shows UK beef imports up 610t overall this year to 158,482t. The drop in Irish volumes has been offset by increased supplies from New Zealand, Australia, Brazil and Uruguay. These four countries increased their export volumes to the UK by a combined 13,511t (see Figure 2).

Market share

Irish beef exports are losing market share to these four major beef-exporting countries. Australia and New Zealand now have tariff-free entry for large quantities of beef to the UK market so they are particularly competitive. The farmgate cattle price in Brazil is less than half what it is in Ireland or the UK and while Uruguay usually has the highest-priced cattle in South America, they are still very competitive compared with UK or Irish prices.

Bord Bia export data shows that overall Irish beef export volumes between January and August are down 7,198t and the fall in exports to Britain accounts for 6,402t of this decline. This drop in exports from Ireland has been driven by a reduction in Irish cattle production. Therefore, it is an oversimplification to say that Irish beef has started to be squeezed out of the UK by imports from the rest of the world. Rather, it is a function of the reduced ability of Irish processors to meet UK demand.

Supply deficit

The supply picture in Ireland has got worse since the end of August and up to the last week in October, the Irish factory kill is running over 146,000 head behind the same period last year.

It is a similar picture in Britain with throughput at factories there down almost 92,000 head to the end of September according to UK HMRC figures compiled by Trade Data Monitor LLC and published by AHDB. AHDB forecasted earlier this year that the overall factory kill would be 150,000 head lower in 2025 in total.

It isn’t just in Ireland and the UK that beef supplies have fallen. Production is down all over Europe and EU data shows that total beef production is 3% lower between January and July this year compared with the same period in 2024. Also, EU beef imports between January and June were 189,233t, 6% higher than the same period last year according to European Commission data.

Opportunities created

Scarcity of supply in Ireland, the rest of the EU and UK has created an opportunity for countries which have beef to export. It is no coincidence that the top two beef-exporting countries in the world who will both export record volumes of beef this year, have grown market share in the UK.

Brazil in particular is actively looking to export markets for its beef to accommodate their year on year increasing export volumes. The UK is an alternative to the US who imposed an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian beef imports back in August.

That takes the overall US tariff on Brazilian beef to over 75% at which point the both the UK and EU are viable alternatives.

At the recent Anuga trade show, ABIEC, which represents Brazil’s beef processors, reported that a survey of participants showed that $847.2m(€737m) of business was done with a further $7bn(€6.1bn) expected over the next 12 months.

By way of comparison, the corresponding figures for the previous show in October 2023 were $340m(€296m) with a projection of $2.8bn(€2.44bn) over the following year.

This implies that the UK and EU are currently very much in play for Brazilian beef exports.

Australia and New Zealand

Unlike Brazil, both Australia and New Zealand have favourable trade deals with the UK. These give huge tariff-free quotas for both beef and sheepmeat and therefore make the UK a lucrative market option even with the distance involved and long lead in time for orders.

Australia’s beef exports are expected to be a record 1.5m tonnes this year. Its main export markets remain the US and Asian countries but it is also building a presence in the UK.

As Figure 3 shows, export volumes to the UK began to increase following the trade agreement coming into effect in June 2023 with real momentum picked up over recent months.

New Zealand beef exports are down overall in the year to the 30 September, falling by 6% to 458,845t according to MIA New Zealand. As with Australia, its main export market is the US, with most of the rest going to Asian markets.

However, they have begun to make an impact in the UK over recent months with volumes above 2,000t in three of the past four months.

The presence of Brazilian, Australian and New Zealand beef in the UK has grown significantly in 2025 but, in the overall context of both their exports and UK imports, it remains small. On the other hand, for Irish beef the UK remains our main export market by a distance and despite the drop, we still supplied 70% of the beef imported by the UK so far this year.

While we have “lost ground” by way of market share and others have increased their presence, it is important to remember the context of reduced cattle supply. This has left Ireland with less beef to export which in itself creates an opportunity for others. This is enhanced further by reduced beef supply in both Britain and the European Union.

The geographical location of Ireland will always make us the preferred UK option for beef imports to fit into modern supermarkets’ just-in-time delivery patterns. This cannot be achieved from the other side of the world.

However, they can easily compete in the frozen manufacturing beef market and more general wholesale and catering supply chains which have longer lead in times. Shrinking beef supplies in Europe mean that imports have been easily absorbed by the market this year.

Whether or not European supply recovers, a strong imported alternative will remain available to the UK from South American countries, Australia and New Zealand into the foreseeable future.

Future trade deals by the EU with Mercosur and Australia would extend that option to the EU as well.

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