The National Milk Agency report released in August noted the continuing decline in the number of registered liquid milk producers. The number of dairy farmers with winter milk contracts has declined from approximately 1,900 to 1,100 farms between 2013 and 2026. Despite the decline, there remains a committed group of efficient winter milk herds who are achieving similar physical and financial performance to top performing spring milk systems according to James Dunne, Teagasc winter milk specialist.

Profit monitor

About 7% of winter milk herds complete profit monitor analysis each year and, similar to their spring-calving contemporaries, they tend to be larger and more productive herds compared to the national average group characteristics. On average, the group have 163 cows per farm and are producing 546kg MS at 4.36% fat and 3.65% protein. On average, these herds are also utilising approximately 9tDM/ha of pasture per year.

For many of these herds, the abolition of milk quotas in 2015 allowed additional growth in spring milk production, resulting in a decline in the winter milk proportion of total supply on these farms up to 2021. In recent years however, increased winter milk premiums have allowed the remaining herds to become more specialised in meeting their winter -milk contracts and so the proportion of total milk supply within winter contracts has stabilised at approximately 53% over the last five years.

Similar to spring production, winter milk dairy producers have experienced significant inflation in the costs of production since 2021.

The cost of carrying a winter milk cow has increased by €622 (32%) between 2021 and 2025. Unsurprisingly, feed and fertiliser costs contributed the lion’s share of the overall increase. James anticipates that these costs will increase by a further 10% during 2026 to reach €2,818/cow due to increased feed, fertiliser and contractor charges.

Fortunately, higher base milk prices and improved winter premiums have mitigated the effects of increased costs on margins in recent years. In 2021, the average winter milk premium was approximately 7c/l on top of spring milk prices. In contrast, today most premiums are between 11c and 13c/l for winter milk schemes. In addition to the premium per litre, the proportion of winter supply on which the premium is secured will also dictate the total additional milk value to these farms.

Focusing on the factors driving increased profitability in winter milk systems, James suggests that the factors are similar to spring calving herds and begin and end with good basics.

“Across the winter herds that we look at in benchmarking, increased pasture utilisation resulting in increased milk solids production and effective cost management are leading to improved financial outcomes on the most profitable winter milk farms.”

Fluctuations

James suggests that with rapid and wide fluctuations in milk prices and input costs, it can be difficult to gauge the underlying impacts of specific farm practices on financial performance on these farms.

“There is considerable variability in costs and profit margins among winter milk farms within the same year. Previous analysis indicates that this variation is not primarily attributed to factors like farm scale or soil type; rather, it is largely influenced by farm management decisions and practices.”

Higher-margin winter milk farms have lower variable and fixed costs, indicating better cost control across a range of categories.

James has observed that differences in fixed costs (including paid labour) were almost twice as important as variable cost differences in explaining the margin difference between higher and lower profit farms in recent years.

Machinery running and depreciation costs are really crucial in winter milk systems and the more profitable farms tend to minimise investment in machinery.

The two main specific farm system considerations for profitable winter milk systems to get right are the milk supply profile and the feed budget.

For a typical winter milk herd with 50% contracted winter milk-supply, calving 25% of the herd compactly in early October is usually the most efficient option to meet the milk supply profile requirements

The aim for these farms is to supply the minimum contracted volume as efficiently as possible during winter, while producing high-quality forage on-farm to minimise purchased feed costs.

For a typical winter milk herd with 50% contracted winter milk-supply, calving 25% of the herd compactly in early October is usually the most efficient option to meet the milk supply profile requirements.

Although some farmers try to supply more of their winter supply with late lactation spring calving cows, late lactation spring calvers only produce approximately half of the milk of a fresh October calver between November and February, while largely requiring the same feed supply.

Good basics: maximise pasture

To boost profit margins through additional milk solids in winter systems, it is essential to maximise pasture intake in the paddock and ensure that adequate high-quality winter forage is available, rather than relying solely on purchased concentrate.

In terms of feed quality, achieving 75% dry matter digestibility (DMD) silage from a three-cut system is essential for winter milk herds and this is complemented by maize silage to support higher intakes on many farms.

At the same time, the most profitable winter herds tend to have slightly lower stocking rates, feed less concentrate per cow and get more grazed grass into the animal diet over the full season.

From an animal breeding perspective, recent data analysis also shows that higher Economic Breeding Index (EBI) animals are delivering extra profitability within winter milk systems.

James says that “while winter herds traditionally selected on milk PTA, selecting on EBI is delivering increased milk solids for winter herds in addition to higher milk prices through improved milk composition over the entire lactation”.