Even though the estimated cost of rural crime rose sharply in NI last year, the total number of agricultural crime incidents reported to police hit a record low.

Last week, insurance firm NFU Mutual published figures which showed rural crime cost an estimated £2.2m in NI during 2025, up 24% on the 2024 total.

However, analysis of official PSNI figures by the Irish Farmers Journal has found that incidents of agricultural crime in NI hit a record low in the 2025 calendar year.

There were 185 incidents of theft or robbery on NI farms last year, which is down 11% from 208 cases reported the year previous.

The figure is the lowest calendar year total since the PSNI started recording incidents of agricultural crime back in 2011.

In terms of all types of crime in rural areas, and not just the incidents that occur on farms, the latest PSNI figures indicate that case numbers have been relatively steady.

The most up to date statistics show there were 3,495 cases of rural crime in NI during the 12 months to the end of March 2026.

The figure represents a marginal 1.6% increase on the 3,437 cases which were reported to the PSNI during the 2024/25 financial year.

Explanation

At first glance, the rising cost of rural crime from the NFU Mutual research appears to be at odds with the falling or steady crime incident rates from the PSNI.

One explanation is likely to be that higher value items were stolen from NI farms last year which more than offset any reduction in the number of thefts that occurred.

In its analysis, NFU Mutual points to a 122% increase in agricultural vehicle thefts, which includes “a large rise” in the number of quad bikes being stolen.

Likewise, the estimated cost of livestock theft in NI also rose by 107% during 2025, according to the insurance firm.

Some cases of theft on local farms are not reported to the PSNI, but this is not likely to be a factor influencing the inconsistency between the total cost and number of rural crimes.

This is because all thefts need to be reported to police for insurance claims to be paid through the likes of NFU Mutual, and claim statistics is the basis of their rural crime research figures.

Historic trend

As outlined in Figure 1, historic figures show that 2025 was not an unusual year, as the cost of rural crime and number of agricultural crime incidents do not always correlate year to year.

In general, the number of crime incidents on NI farms has been on a downward trend over the past decade or more, whereas the total cost of rural crime can fluctuate from year to year.

That said, the total cost of rural crime in NI has followed a somewhat jittery path downwards, having peaked back in 2019 at £3.3m.

The historic figures suggest that the total number of thefts and the value of items being stolen both influence the overall cost of rural crime in NI.