Markets declined this week, with little news to give rise to anything.
As an example, Matif wheat for December 2026 hit €224.75/t on 13 May, was at €22.50/t on 26 May and on Tuesday evening this week was at €212.75/t. On Wednesday afternoon it was at €213/t.
Wheat, corn and oilseed rape were all down in France, London wheat was down and US corn and wheat were down, while soybeans were up.
With a decline in news to move markets, funds also get edgy and some selling is going on. So, what are markets looking out for when it comes to news?
Fuel and fertiliser prices are still volatile. Oil prices rebounded this week, as markets remain focused on what is happening in the Middle East.
However, we should remember this is traditionally a time of the year where grain prices drop ahead of harvest time and harvest is only around the corner in Europe.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported this week that SovEcon increased its estimate to the 2026 Russian wheat crop by 0.6m tonnes to 90.3m tonnes.
Planting in Canada is also behind. As of 26 May, 52% of wheat had been planted in Saskatchewan, the main grain growing area of the country, which imports a lot of wheat across the Atlantic.
This is 19% behind the five-year average for the time of year.
US harvest started
The US crop progress report from 1 June estimated that 5% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested, mainly in Arkansas, California, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas.
Areas of the ‘Great Plains’ were hit by drought and the yield impact is yet to be seen. However, reports suggest this is already factored into prices.
Corn planting is now 93% complete, while soybean planting is 87% complete. The first corn condition report placed 67% in good or excellent condition, just 2% behind last year.
El Nino chance
The World Meteorological Organisation has given an 80% chance of an El Nino this year.
El Nino weather events last for around 12 months and often result in drier weather in Australia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern parts of South America. Increased rainfall can occur in other areas.
This will be something market analysts will continue to keep an eye on, but it may not be something that plays into 2026 harvest prices for Ireland.
Native prices
Spot prices for wheat look to be under €225/t (dried), while barley looks to have dropped back to €220/t (dried) or under.
Maize into the country is down around €5/t to €230/t. After print last week, Tirlán released a price of €195/t for green feed wheat at harvest, €190/t for green feed barley, €490/t got oilseed rape and €225/t for beans.