Data on beef imports for the 2026 to the end of August, published by China Customs and supplied by Bord Bia, shows that the quotas allocated to Brazil and Australia have been filled.
Brazil has supplied 1.445m tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with all the beef above the 1.1m tonne quota carrying an additional 55% tariff. Australia had been allocated a 205,000 tonne quota and by the end of August, 225,403 tonnes of Australian beef had been imported into China.
These volumes are considerably ahead of the first months last year in the case of Brazil. In 2025 to the end of August, Brazil had supplied 875,000 tonnes, confirming that Brazil’s exporters had been aggressively supplying the market to maximise their use of the quota while it was available. In Brazil, it is expected that production for the 2027 quota year will begin in October so that beef can be in transit and ready to land in Chinese ports at the start of January.
For Australia, the volume of beef supplied to the end of August this year is similar to what it had supplied in the same period last year
The problem that has been identified with this strategy is that the 1.1m tonne quota will be fully utilised earlier next year, perhaps as early as April instead of August as was the case this year.
For Australia, the volume of beef supplied to the end of August this year is similar to what it had supplied in the same period last year. However, looking at the monthly data, Australia had fully utilised its quota by the end of June and, therefore, any beef supplied since then will have carried the 55% import tariff.
Market impact
When tariffs are added or removed from any commodity it immediately impact trade. Buyers will look to stock up ahead of the tariff being imposed and sellers will be chasing sales.
Since both Australia and Brazil have filled their quota for China, their main alternative option has been the US, which is seeking to attract beef imports for a three-month period by removing their beef import tariff.
This has meant that while Australian beef exports dipped in July and August and Brazil’s overall exports were lower in August this year compared with a year ago, the impact of China’s tariffs was partially mitigated by access to the US.
Other market issues
While Brazil and China have a common issue with China quotas, both countries have other export issues. In the case of Australia, it is with South Korea, where it has hit the annual level where the safeguard kicks in and Australian beef becomes subject to a tariff. This differs from China in that the South Korea arrangement is longstanding having been agreed as part of a trade deal.
For Brazil, its secondary problem is the suspension of all meat exports to the EU since 3 September. Media reports in Brazil suggests that the EU ban could cost the beef industry up to $700m (€620m) between now and the end of 2026.
Mitigation
While Brazil and Australia have exhausted their quotas, all other major suppliers of beef to China are well under quota. It is understood that discussions have been ongoing between these countries, which include Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and New Zealand, to transfer some of their quotas to Brazilian and Australian exporters but so far this hasn’t progressed beyond the exploration stage.
Comment
As Irish beef is exported almost exclusively to the UK and EU, trade issues between China, Australia and Brazil may seem far away. So long as the US provides a high volume alternative market to China and the EU is closed to beef from Brazil, that will remain the case.
However, should the US market change and the EU reopen to Brazil, then increased competition from Brazilian and Australian beef in Europe could increase in the medium and longer term.
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