US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) figures for US meat exports in October 2025 show that beef export volumes were 93,448 tonnes (t).

This was down 11% on October the previous year, but if China is excluded from the data, exports to all other countries show a 5% increase year on year.

The problem with China isn’t so much the increased tariffs, but the fact that as the licenses for US factories exporting to China have expired, they haven’t been renewed by the Chinese authorities.

Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China increased in March and April, but were subsequently lowered and since November stand at 45% on US pork and 22% on US beef.

Markets

Overall US beef exports for the year to the end of October were 949,471t, which is 11% lower than for the same period the previous year, though just 3% lower for all countries other than China. This makes the US the third-largest beef-exporting country in the world after Brazil and Australia.

US beef exports would also be under pressure even without the China issue due to scarcity of cattle supply and despite higher prices, a strong domestic market.

Despite the difficulties, there are positive stories in the October export data for US beef exports.

Volumes to Japan increased 17% on the previous year to 19,734t, though sales for the year to date are still 3% below the same period in 2024.

It was the opposite with South Korea, as October volumes dipped by 15% to 16,690t, but total US beef exports to the country in 2025 are ahead of last year at 194,407t, a 3% increase.

EU and UK

Of particular interest to Irish producers and processors are US beef exports to the UK and EU.

A post-Brexit US-UK trade agreement gives the US access for 13,000t of beef under the economic and prosperity deal agreed in June 2025.

Access to the EU is through a special high-quality beef quota for 35,000t tariff-free, which was the outcome of an EU ban on imports of hormone-treated beef.

Neither of these quotas has been close to tested in 2025. Up to the end of October, US exported 6,302t of beef to Netherlands and 2,997t to Italy, making it less than 10,000t overall to EU countries.

In the same period, it exported 2,044t of beef to the UK, which is 24% more than in the same period the previous year, but tiny overall, both in the context of UK beef imports and overall US beef exports.

The main reason for these exports being so small despite having tariff-free quotas is that both the UK and EU ban all beef that has been produced with hormones added to the animal feed from being imported.

Looking ahead to the last two months of 2025 and then into 2026, it is difficult to foresee a major recovery in US beef exports.

Domestic cattle supplies are tight and just this week Tyson - one of the major US beef processors - has ceased operations at its Lexington factory.

With pressure on supply and no immediate sign of China renewing licenses, the start of 2026 will continue to be difficult for US beef exports.

All that could change if China reissues import licenses to US processors, as the US has a generous quota for 2026 relative to what was supplied in 2025. This will be one of the many trade relationships worth watching this year.