The Just Transition Commission of Ireland’s report, published last week, said that decisions taken in the area of agricultural reform, land use and environmental policy over the coming years will have consequences for generations.

The Commission said it believes “agriculture and land use are at a pivotal moment”.

The report follows close on the heels of the publication of the second phase of the Land Use Review, and echoes the central challenge highlighted in that document. It summarises that challenge: “Farmers and rural communities are being asked to respond simultaneously to climate change, biodiversity loss, changing market conditions and evolving societal expectations, while continuing to produce food and sustain livelihoods.”

While the Land Use Review posited pathways for Irish agriculture which would achieve the goals already outlined by legislation and policy, the Commission report concentrates on how the coming transition should be managed in a way which is as equitable and fair as possible.

It is notable that among the recommendations put forward by the Commission is one which asks the government to “provide clarity” on how the findings of the Land Use Review will inform future policy and decision-making. There was not much sign of that clarity in the government reaction to the land use review.

The review itself makes it clear that it is not an articulation of government policy, nor is it a new strategy in relation to land use. Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon emphasised that landowners are, and will be, the ultimate decision makers under any changes to land use in Ireland.

This suggests that government is more likely to adopt a carrot, rather than a stick, approach.

The Commission report on a Just Transition in Agriculture seems to be in agreement with this strategy. While it says that a national dialogue to develop a shared long-term vision for Irish agriculture needs to be “urgently” convened, the rest of its key recommendations are about how climate, socioeconomic and biodiversity goals can be achieved equitably, and how changes farmers make can be rewarded.

It recommends that long-term, accessible and equitable funding mechanisms be established to support farmers and landowners undertaking climate action, nature restoration and generational land-use change and that policies provide fair and adequate financial recognition for the delivery of climate, biodiversity and ecosystem benefits.

On the market side, it recommends that government and stakeholders work together to strengthen market demand, develop routes to market and reduce barriers to diversification in agriculture. It also recommends that governance, regulatory and market frameworks support fair carbon-farming arrangements.

There are also recommendations around the future of farming aimed at increasing gender equality across agriculture and generational renewal. It says targeted supports for young farmers and measures to improve access to land for new entrants are needed as well as to ensure equitable access and participation throughout the sector.

Overall, the Commission states that the transition must be implemented in a way that creates opportunities for decent incomes, good working conditions and thriving rural economies.

The report is also clear that Ireland’s agricultural landscape is not homogenous.

The geographic clustering of farm types, where dairy is concentrated in the south and east of the country, and extensive beef and sheep operations more common in the west, mean that an unplanned transition could hit different areas of the country unevenly. The Commission notes that while current scenarios to reduce emissions from agriculture concentrate on technological and management measures – citing the Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) – some scenarios acknowledge a reduction in beef cattle numbers while the dairy herd size increases.

A generation worth of data on cattle numbers in Ireland suggests that the “unplanned transition” is already well underway.

Ireland is almost unique in major European Union agricultural economies in that the country has managed to maintain overall cattle numbers at a fairly constant level over the last 30 years (see Figure 1).

However, that maintenance of that overall number hides the changes which have occurred within farming. Between 2005 and 2025 the number of dairy cows in Ireland increased by 50% to 1.5m, growth which has come at the cost of suckler cow numbers, and which is unique in the EU (see Figure 2).

The Commission says that amendments to the current payments system, which have been proposed under reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy, provide an opportunity to improve how payments are distributed and their applicability.

It says that a support system that recognises additional competing demands for the land could ensure that in addition to food production, farmers are rewarded for ecosystem services, carbon sequestration, good water quality and the provision of quality habitats through longer-term, reliable payments.

On the thorny issue of what constitutes an “active farmer”, the Commission says that support for active farmers “must encompass the broad range of farmer experience that sustains many economic activities across rural communities in Ireland. Any definition of “active” farmer should continue to recognise low intensity farming and include farmers providing ecosystem services and climate and nature friendly farm activities.

Overall, the Commission says that while direct income support will remain important for farm viability, available public resources should be increasingly directed towards schemes that deliver environmental, social and economic outcomes in line with the principles of a just transition.

There is an emphasis in the report from the Commission on the need for certainty in supports for farmers over the long term to ensure participation in the transition.

It says: “Long-term confidence will depend on whether climate action, land-use change and nature restoration are supported through fair funding arrangements, reliable income opportunities and policies that provide certainty over the long term.”

While the Just Transition Commission report makes more palatable reading than the recent Land Use Review, it does point to the same direction of travel for Ireland’s agricultural industry; one where the land and the farmers who are custodians of it will have to deal with increasing demands over the coming years and decades.

While the report doesn’t directly highlight it, it seems from the data available that Ireland has been slow, when compared to our European neighbours, in grasping the thorny issue of land use and agricultural change. This relatively slow progress does not mean that the transition has been avoided, rather that it has been delayed. The Land Use Review notes that the delay could mean “more costly and drastic action” is needed in the longer term.

While Government says that final decisions on land use will remain with farmers and landowners, those groups have shown over many years that they react positively to well-designed incentive schemes.

The Just Transition report makes the crucial point that incentives for changes in land use must provide certainty over the long-term. Providing that certainty is the job of policymakers. If a farmer is being asked to change how they manage their land, or how intensively they farm, then they will need certainty over future sustainable income that runs over decades and generations, not over years, or even months, as we currently see in some cases.

So, yes, there are changes coming to Ireland’s agricultural system, but the immediate change that is needed is one in government and EU policy which will lock-in supports for the long-term and allow farmers to make decisions for the long-term based on sufficient certainty over what the future could bring.