In its October World Markets and Trade report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting that global beef exports will fall by 1% to 13.9m tonnes in 2027.
This is due to an expected decline in volumes from the United States, Australia and Brazil not being fully offset by increased exports from India, Mexico and Uruguay.
The report says that Brazil will face “significant headwinds” because of tightening domestic supplies combined with trade policy in key export markets.
It suggests that in 2027, Brazil is likely “to pivot more aggressively towards alternative export markets, particularly in south Asia, the Middle East and South America”.
This is because its quota for China is set at 1.1m tonnes (t), some 500,000t below the 2021-2025 five-year average and the EU market for beef was suspended in September and is unlikely to reopen during 2027.
European Union and UK
The European Union was a market for 10% of Brazil’s beef export volumes, though this was 16% of the value.
From an Irish farmers' and exporters' perspective, the USDA view on EU exports being rerouted to the UK is worth noting.
The report says that the “United Kingdom could import additional product, but with only marginal growth in imports projected …. significant increases to export volumes are unlikely”.
That suggests that there may be some increase of Brazilian beef in the UK market, but not much.
While the UK has so far declined to follow EU policy on suspending imports from Brazil due to its antibiotic controls being considered inadequate, this could be about to change.
As Peter McCann reports in this week’s Irish Farmers Journal, the UK is about to send inspectors to Brazil and this could lead to the UK following the EU lead, as it has been encouraged to do by farm and industry leaders.
If it decides as a result of this inspection to follow EU policy, that would mean the UK also being closed to Brazilian beef.
China and United States
While China’s beef imports in 2026 were effectively capped for Brazil and Australia, both countries did have the option of the US market, which has shown increasing demand year on year because of the ongoing decline in the native cattle population.
However, the USDA is forecasting that US beef imports will decline by 3% next year because the short-term quotas on ground beef and the additional 80,000t quota for Argentina are not expected to be extended into next year.
Brazil has grown its beef exports to the US significantly last year, but it is expected that it will face strong competition in 2027.
With that in mind, the USDA forecasts that its export volumes will drop back from the record peak of 4.4m tonnes in 2025 to 4.2m tonnes next year and 4.1m tonnes in 2027.
The greatest disruption to the global beef market this year was caused by China’s import quotas, which only affected Brazil and Australia.
For both countries, the US provided an outlet for more beef due to its scarcity of domestic supply.
The fact that the production cycle in both countries appears to have peaked for the present also helps remove some pressure to find additional export markets.
Irish farmers and exporters will be watching what further inroads Australian beef makes in the UK market. After a surge from a very low base in the middle of last year, its beef exports to the UK are lower over the past three months than they were a year ago.
With the EU ban just having come into effect, the impact of additional beef from Brazil will only become apparent with the passage of time assuming that the UK continue to allow it enter following their upcoming inspections.
Brazil’s exports slump - but prices keep rising