This time six years ago, Phil Hogan’s term as EU trade commissioner was coming to an abrupt close. He resigned from the role as a result of the fallout from participation in a golf dinner that was held during COVID-19 restrictions.

He has operated successfully in consultancy since then, but this year he has made a pitch to become the next director general (DG) at the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), an agency of the United Nations (UN).

Hogan has been proposed by the Irish Government for the position, but he will face strong competition, both globally and from within the European Union – who are expected to throw their votes behind another single EU candidate.

It is thought that Hogan has plenty of support among EU members, with France already confirmed and he will have the ear of several member state governments where sister parties of Fine Gael, are in power.

Election process

Though nominations don’t officially open until late November, there are other strong candidates already in the race from Spain and Italy, and both are looking for the EU vote.

The Spanish government have nominated their agriculture minister Luis Planas for the role, while the Italian government has nominated Maurizio Martina. He is the current deputy DG at the FAO as well as a former Italian minister of agriculture.

Technically all of these candidates could go forward to contest the election for the DG position, which will take place during the FAO conference at the end of June next year.

However, between now and the close of nominations towards the end of February 2027, there will be considerable horse trading to find a single EU candidate that all member states can get behind. Hogan will be well able for this, though he will have to overcome the fall out from Ireland voting against the Mercosur trade deal which still rankles in Brussels.

As of now, there are no indications of a nomination from Asia

If he wins the battle in Europe, it moves to the global stage where competition is expected from one or more African countries and Turkey has nominated a former agriculture minister to go forward.

As of now, there are no indications of a nomination from Asia and the US are thought to be contemplating putting someone forward, but it may not be top of the Trump administration’s agenda at present.

A single African representative would be a strong candidate, but the bottom line is that if he can secure the unanimous support of EU and other European countries, Hogan would be a serious challenger.

He will also have plenty of names that he can call upon in Asian and North American countries from the trade missions he led there as a commissioner. Hogan will also be forever recognised in South America as the EU commissioner more than any other, that made Mercosur happen, even if they didn’t get as big a beef quota as they would have liked!

Many in Irish agriculture will have at most a vague awareness of the FAO as an international institution.

It was set up in the aftermath of World War II with 42 countries participating, and was originally headquartered in the US, but since 1951 it has been located in Rome, Italy and now has 194 member countries plus the EU.

The full title is the ‘Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations’ to which it is affiliated as an autonomous specialised agency. If Hogan does land the job, it doesn’t have the potential to impact on Irish farmers or the wider economy in the way that his roles in the EU commission did.

Hunger isn’t an issue at a national level in the relatively affluent developed world, though in Europe it almost happened at the end of World War II

As for the FAO itself, it has been led by China’s Dr Qu Dongyu since 2019 and is now in the final year of his second four-year term.

The FAO states that its goal is to “achieve food security for all and make sure that people have regular access to enough high quality food to lead active healthy lives”.

Hunger isn’t an issue at a national level in the relatively affluent developed world, though in Europe it almost happened at the end of World War II. This was a trigger for the establishment of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after the formation of the European Economic Community, forerunner to the present EU.

Solving global hunger

Global hunger at present happens in parts of the world that don’t have the natural resources to produce sufficient food and where the population don’t have enough wealth to import it from elsewhere.

Climate and exceptional weather events are often a major factor for food production in the more challenging parts of the world. The problem with hunger is often made worse by armed conflict as has been the case in Gaza.

The FAO, like the UN itself, has been good at identifying where hunger exists and developing plans to address it, but delivery is more challenging. Knowing what needs to be done is straightforward, but the FAO is limited in its ability to deliver a solution.

This is because doing so usually involves achieving a level of collaboration between countries – or even within countries – and that can prove impossible during conflict. Of course this doesn’t just apply to the FAO, it equally applies to the UN itself. It’s core purpose is to maintain world peace and its achievements since its inception (also in 1945) has been mixed at best. For example, it has operated with some success in parts of Africa and for a time in Lebanon where Irish forces participated.

However, the UN has been unable to neither prevent nor resolve the more recent conflicts in the Middle East conflicts, nor was it able to prevent or end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The FAO has a similar difficulty in that to operate successfully it needs the collaboration or at least the acquiescence of the parties that are often in conflict. What FAO can do is spotlight where there are problems, such as in Gaza last year, which can lead to a build up of political and even public pressure on warring parties to deliver some solution in the worst situations.

The present targeting of grain exports by both Russia and Ukraine around the Black Sea has the potential to create scarcity of supply

They were less successful with earlier intervention and for example the present targeting of grain exports by both Russia and Ukraine around the Black Sea has the potential to create scarcity of supply and increase prices over the coming months, but there is little enthusiasm among the parties to cease hostilities.

Incidentally, this issue has created a tension among EU countries bordering Ukraine where farmers fear an overflow of Ukrainian grain depressing their prices further.

For all of its difficulties and challenges, the FAO is, and will remain, a major global institution for the foreseeable future. The nature of the institution means that there is a strong political dimension to leading it, given that its membership is basically all the world’s countries, from the largest to the smallest.

The successful candidate will have to demonstrate the ability to build consensus among the members to tackle the issue around global hunger, but ability alone won’t be enough to get the job.

That will involve persuading a majority of member states who will often choose a candidate for political reasons as opposed to ability. Hogan will know who he needs to get on board and how to go about it and is therefore a serious candidate. Whether or not he succeeds will depend on many factors – several of which are outside his control or influence.

If he gets the appointment, it will have no direct impact on Irish farmers and agrifood industry. However, there is a certain prestige if the candidate proposed by our Government is chosen to lead a global institution. It would also strengthen the soft power that small countries like Ireland seek to exercise in the absence of military might.

Judicious use of that power can in itself create opportunity for trade, something that is always of benefit to an exporting country!