Irish cattle prices increased by 38% for 2025, the largest annual increase in the last decade.

The increase in beef price in 2025 came on the back of reduced supplies in Ireland and in that of our main markets in the United Kingdom and Europe.

There were 213,000 animals killed in 2025 as a result of higher live exports, reduced livestock numbers and higher heifer retention.

Looking ahead to the national kill in 2026, it’s is likely to remain very stable with a possible reduction to 1.56 million head possible which would be a further reduction of between 30-40,000 head in 2026.

Live exports

Total live exports were back by 351,000 (-7%) with calf exports coming in at 223,421 head in 2025 which was up by 11%.

UK beef production was back 4% in 2025 with a steady decline in the cattle herd evident for the last number of years.

Increasing volumes of non-EU beef imports into the UK, up 31% in 2025 with Australian imports being the main driver.

Joe Burke outlined Bord Bia’s new supply forecasting model which factors in data from a number of sources and then predicts what the annual supply curve will be like for the 12 months ahead and longer periods into the future.

Carcase weights improved for the second half of 2025 with better grazing conditions and a reluctance of farmers to go back to the market to buy more stores and hence finishing cattle to a heavier weight.

This resulted in heavier carcase weights especially for the second half of the year.

Bullock carcase weights increased from 340kg in 2024 to 347kg in 2025 with heifers increasing from 301kg in 2024 to 305kg in 2025.

In his address, Joe Burke outlined some upcoming legislative changes around the protection of animals during transport with reduced transport times and reduced stocking density when transporting animals.

This would add to costs of live exports should the changes come into effect.

Bluetongue is continuing to have a big impact on animal numbers and performance across Europe with the impact still being felt in calf rates and mortality rates on farms.

This means that there won’t be any significant recovery in animal numbers across Europe in the short term.

Higher beef prices have hit consumer demand with prices up 34% in Ireland and up 31% in Britain.

Mince prices have seen some of the highest price increases with the UK mince price up 37% for the 12 weeks up to 30th November. Beef purchases have lost out to poultry in the main with consumers opting for cheaper meats especially in retail settings over the last 12 months.

The UK market is coming under increasing pressure from imports from outside the EU with non-EU imports up 31% in 2025.

Australian imports gained most with 83% growth in the year to October 2025.

Experts have predicted that Australian imports will continue to gain market share in 2026 putting pressure on imports from Ireland. Across the EU, beef production was back 5.4% to October 2025. The EU beef herd reduced by 2.5% in 2025 while the dairy herd reduced by 3.5%.

EU consumption is under some pressure with beef consumption back 2.5% in 2025 on the back of increased prices.

The EU market has also seen a growth in imports in 2025 with beef imports up 10% in the last 12 months.

Strongest gains were seen by Brazil which was up 20% and Argentina which was up 19%.

Global beef production declining but consumption growing

Rupert Claxton, GIRA meat analysis expert gave his view on global meat trade in 2026 across beef, sheep, pig and poultry markets.

Global disease outbreaks continue to disrupt global trade with chicken supply being particularly affected by animal disease. Despite all the negativity around meat consumption, it continues to grow with beef consumption expected to grow by 1% by 2030.

There is widespread growth across a number of markets with Asia seeing notable growth in the last few years with further growth forecast for the next five years.

On the supply side, beef production is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 with a 1% drop in global meat production expected in the next 12 months.

This is partly driven by cycles impacted by weather in the USA with no recovery expected in numbers for at least two years. Brazil and Australia are expected to have a lower kill in 2026 based on high prices and higher heifer kills in the last 12 months.

Claxton has, on a number of occasions in the last few months, said Mercosur won’t have a huge impact on the European beef trade and he continued on that thread at the Bord Bia Meat marketing seminar on Friday morning.

“Mercosur will be OK, it’s just a fact of life and we have to deal with it,” he told the audience in Laois.

He pointed to the big decline in European beef production over the last number of years down 742,000 tonnes since 2019 and that was one of the reasons why he thinks the extra 99,000 tonnes from Mercosur countries won’t have an impact on the EU trade.

Donald Trump also got a mention in the GIRA expert’s presentation.

“What is going to be the 51st state of America, will it be Greenland or will it be Cuba? The big impact Donald Trump is having is the uncertainty he has injected into international trade.”

Claxton also referenced the global challenge of farm succession with young people across the globe failing to take up farming as a career.

“Farmer confidence around the world is low. People aren’t building sheds anymore but that’s good for supply in that there aren’t any extra numbers on the market.”

He closed with a clear concise message for the audience. “Farm profitability is at the cost of margin and this isn’t sustainable and won’t encourage the next generation to farm”.

He added that the EU beef industry is in long term decline and that this decline will result in some restructuring of slaughtering assets, something we have already seen with two Irish processor announcements this week.