It could have been worse. The EU-US trade deal at least means we don’t have to worry about a no-holds barred trade war. For Ireland, Donald Trump’s words mid-negotiation that pharma would be excluded would have been a disaster. Much like the Donegal footballers after that early Kerry blitz, a complete thumping was a real prospect for a while.
In the end, it’s a defeat, but not annhilation. The final outcome is respectable enough for Ursula von der Leyen and national leaders like Micheál Martin to present it as the best available outcome.
But it could have been better. Perhaps if Ursula von der Leyen had spent a little less time in recent months cooking up the single budget wheeze to cloak CAP cuts, and a little more time engaging with like-minded democracies, a coalition to stand up to Trump and his tariffs could have been created.
Martin Heydon has been batting for the Government on the airwaves in relation to the trade deal, drawing comparisons with the EU/UK negotiations post-Brexit.
It isn’t a bad analogy, in that the EU was faced with a radical change in political direction, and specifically trade relations, with a close trading partner, now adversary.
He is also correct that the detail and specifics will ultimately determine the value of this deal.
Heydon has also been directly addressing how Irish agri exports to the US will be affected. His view that a 15% tariff on dairy products actually amounts to a small reduction on what was being levied prior to this deal is an interesting take.
Advantage
His point that if EU spirits do achieve a zero tariff, then Irish whiskey actually gains a 10% advantage over Scottish whisky, due to the 10% tariff accepted by the UK in its deal with the Trump administration.
Of course, that is a big “if”, as Heydon’s natural optimism must be tempered with his earlier point about needing to see the small print.
And it could get yet worse. The big question now is whether the deal will hold. It looks like the US has got the better of the deal, but that doesn’t guarantee Donald Trump will hold true to his word. Indeed, if he senses that Europe is weak and can be pushed around, he could seek to press home his advantage at the first opportunity.
If that happens, perhaps Brussels will display some of the intransigence shown to farmers looking for an increase in CAP supports, after 40 years of shrinkage, and stand up to our neighbours to the west.