It’s looking like this Saturday’s Mercosur protest is going to be a big event. I’m hearing stories of farmers mobilising all over the country, with buses and carloads heading for Athlone.

As long as the weather doesn’t affect the attendance, it’s actually a good time of year to be calling farmers to arms.

It isn’t a very busy period in farmyards, apart from the tiny proportion of winter milk and early lamb producers. And it seems that all the major farm organisations will be present. The IFA’s endorsement of the event is particularly important, and will swell the attendance. And the INHFA will bring significant numbers from their Connacht stronghold.

Sinn Féin has also confirmed that it will attend the event, which gives it a pan-opposition feel. That will add to the pressure Micheál Martin, Simon Harris and Martin Heydon feel on Mercosur. The latest line from the Government is it continues to have “grave concerns” over Mercosur. It’s now thought next Friday could see the deal passed, with Italy accepting the deal.

The EU, helpless and passive in the face of Donald Trump’s escalating interventions, needs the deal to pass. The fact that Venezeula is a Mercosur member, currently suspended because of the Maduro regime’s behaviour, shows how strategically important the trade agreement is for Europe.

It’s important for Independent Ireland, which has organised the event, that there’s a big turnout. As a political organisation, it has consolidated in the two years since its formation, gaining a seat in the European Parliament and 23 county councillors in the June 2024 elections. In fact, it gained more votes in those European elections than Labour or the Social Democrats and finished in fourth place behind Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.

However, Michael Collins, Richard O’Donoghue, and Michael Fitzmaurice would have been disappointed to only gain one extra Dáil seat in the general election that December.

It’s also fair to say that the party has yet to fully find an identity. Its latest TD, Ken O’Flynn has pushed hard on what would be best described as a reactionary agenda. If it isn’t hard-right, it’s next door to it.

Meanwhile, its MEP Ciaran Mullooly chose to join the moderate Renew group in the European Parliament, alongside Fianna Fáil, triggering the resignation of the party’s chair, Elaine Mullally.

The protest seems to be a Fitzmaurice/Mullooly operation, and has avoided identity politics.

Even so, it’s entirely probable that what is a single-issue protest will bring along people who care not a fig about Mercosur or cattle prices, but are anti-EU or anti-immigration.

Managing the tone of the protest will be important, locals in Athlone won’t want to see Brussels-type blazing bales in the middle of the town.

If Mercosur has already been ratified, it could be a spicy afternoon.