Meat factory closures are an inevitable consequence of the sharp drop in the Irish cattle kill, a leading international meat sector analyst has warned.

Rupert Claxton of GIRA claimed it was not feasible that Ireland could retain the same number of meat factories given the significant reduction in the cattle kill recorded last year.

Bord Bia figures show that the Irish cattle kill in 2025 dropped by 213,000 head when compared to 2024. It fell from 1.8 million head to 1.59 million head, a reduction of almost 12%.

Forecast

And the cattle kill is forecast to remain at around 1.6 million head this year.

“Ireland has too many plants for the number of cattle that are left,” Claxton claimed.

“You have already consolidated the companies, now it will be the factories,” he said.

“For me, Ireland has a healthy number of companies. They provide some competition for the cattle, they’re competitive in the market, they’ve got a global position,” the GIRA analyst maintained.

“The challenge for me comes from the number of factories that you are trying to operate and the cost of running these,” he said.

Meat factories only run efficiently if the throughput is high and capacity utilisation is high, Claxton pointed out.

Low throughput increases the cost per animal of strict EU environmental regulations and Ireland’s high labour charges.

“It is very difficult if you have a labour team in a plant that only runs at 40-50% some of the time,” Claxton said.

“Those guys are in demand; they don’t want to work two or three days a week; they want to work five days a week. And the equipment in that plant is really only cost efficient if you can run it five days a week,” he insisted.

“Structurally, the industry has to do some reorganisation. And part of that is in the preservation of margin for everyone in the chain,” the GIRA analyst said.

“If you are shelling out money for the equipment in the factories then you can’t pay more for the cattle, you end up pushing the consumer price up and driving them away,” Claxton claimed.

“I’d rather see an industry in Ireland with less factories but that was more resilient in the long-term, than trading off resilience to make sure you have a factory around every corner.”

The Polish challenge to the EU-Mercosur trade deal will be “disruptive” but will not derail the agreement, said Rupert Claxton of international consultancy firm GIRA.

The Poles have taken a legal challenge against the trade deal, which will give access to 99,000t of South American beef to the lucrative EU market at a reduced tariff rate of 7.5%.

The trade agreement has been condemned by farm organisations right across Europe, but Claxton maintained that it will be pushed through by the European Commission.

“I think the political will is there beyond what the farmers would like to see. And the reality is that beef is expensive in Europe and there is some space in the market,” Claxton maintained.

Beef production across the EU and UK fell by 8% or almost 290,000t through the first half of 2025.

The GIRA analyst did not agree with the contention, made by farm organisations and processor representatives, that Brazil would use the trade deal to cherry-pick the EU market by using the low-tariff quota predominantly for high value cuts.

“I don’t think they’ll do that, it’s not in their interest,” Claxton said.

“And the beef will come under a bit of scrutiny as it comes in. That might make them think a bit harder,” he added

The 99,000t is expected to be mainly from Brazil, with smaller volumes from Argentina and Uruguay.

Meanwhile, Claxton accepted that the Iran war was starting to hit consumer preferences in the EU, amid fears that disposable incomes could take a hammering if the conflict continues.

“I think we got some localised issues on the back of the Iran war, and in Europe we might see the consumer being a bit tighter about what they will buy,” Claxton maintained.

“In Europe, people are worried about their disposable income.

“They’re worried about what they’re spending money on, and they’re going to buy less steak as a result,” he said.

There is not enough data to predict how meat markets are being impacted, but he predicted that hindquarter cuts could bear the brunt of any downturn in consumer buying.

However, Claxton argued that consumer nervousness around the cost of beef was unlikely to be reflected in lower cattle prices.

“The reality is that we don’t have that much beef in Europe, it’s tight anyway,” he pointed out.

The purchase by Dawn Meats of a controlling stake in the New Zealand meat processing co-op Alliance Group has been described as an “intelligent” move by Rupert Claxton, meat and livestock director with leading consultancy firm GIRA.

“It gives them access to New Zealand beef, and it also gives them business diversification away from a market where supply is limited,” said Claxton.

“New Zealand has got a supply of beef there that could be better marketed,” he added. Dawn Meats’ purchase of a 65% share of Alliance Group – in a deal which was valued at approximately €132 million – has stoked farmer fears that it will facilitate increased New Zealand exports of beef into the British market. New Zealand’s share of British imports has increased from 7% last year to 13% for the first three months of 2026.

However, Claxton maintained that the deal was not solely about the European market. “It [the deal] will almost certainly mean that some [New Zealand] beef comes back to the European market because Dawn have got route to market here. But I think you have also got to bear in mind that that New Zealand product has got demand in places like the US and access into China,” he explained.

“It is not just about Dawn putting [New Zealand] product into Europe, it is about they diversifying their risk.”