European wheat prices hit a new low for the December 2025 contract on Tuesday evening, with Matif wheat closing at €186.25/t, down from last Friday’s close of €189.50/t.

French corn is suffering the same fate, with prices at a year-low of €181.25/t on Tuesday, with both markets pressured by abundant local and global supply.

The European Commission increased its forecast of soft wheat production in 2025/26 to 132.6m tonnes, a 10-year high.

This is an increase from last month’s figure of 128.1m tonnes and comes as the outlook in Germany, France and Romania has improved.

Agritel reports that the Argentinian and Australian harvests are expected to be excellent, with potential for a record harvest in the former. This may cause competition for European grain in some markets.

US harvest

The USDA reports that 18% of the corn area is now harvested, with the soybean harvest at 19%. These figures are both one point below the average.

However, it was the USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report that caused a downward shift in the markets earlier this week and is keeping the pressure on US markets.

The report, issued on Tuesday, estimated 1.532bn bushels of US corn in stock as of 1 September. While this is down from last year’s figures, it is well above estimated levels.

The US Congress failed to reach a deal on government funding by Wednesday’s deadline, leading to a shutdown. If this is not rectified soon, it will affect the USDA’s reporting capacity and may then have an impact on US grain markets.

French rapeseed for November was at €466/t on Wednesday morning. This was up on Tuesday’s open of €464.75/t, but came after a significant fall on Monday from last week’s close of €471/t.

Ukraine is currently reviewing its export taxes on rapeseed and this could cause further pressures on the market.

Argentinian taxes

Argentina’s temporary suspension of grain export taxes lasted for only three days last week after the sales cap on this tax suspension ($7bn) was reached.

This suspension aimed to increase export sales and stabilise the peso with an influx of American dollars. China took advantage of the lower prices, buying up soybeans.

This comes as the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reports that demand for soybean meal continues to drive oilseed consumption in China. Imports of soybean are set to reach 106m tonnes for 2025/26, with the majority of this coming from South America.

All prices quoted in this article are for dried grain unless otherwise stated.