The Mercosur trade deal would now appear to be in real trouble, with both France and Italy, two European heavy weights, calling for delays to the deal.

While the deal will still be on the table and anything could still happen in the next 48 hours, the more than likely delay will dent any momentum that the European Commission had to get it completed before the end of the year.

No matter what happens as regards the outcome of the trade deal, the Irish government hasn’t come out of it well in the eyes of beef farmers.

They have been more than equivocal in recent days around their stance on the trade deal and have taken a ‘sit on the fence’ attitude to any line of questioning.

This is despite opposition to the Mercosur trade deal being clearly outlined in the programme for government.

On page 26 of the programme for government, it states that the Irish Government will “work with like-minded EU countries to stand up for Irish farmers and defend our interests in opposing the current Mercosur trade deal.”

There is a thought that Ireland was waiting to see if a qualified blocking minority existed and if it didn’t, there was no point in rejecting the deal as the 35% blocking minority wouldn’t have been reached, an easy out for Ireland.

The news from Italy this week that they would join France in their opposition to the ratification of the current deal changed all that with a blocking minority or delay now looking more likely on Friday.

In terms of EU opposition to the deal, France and Italy are major players when it comes to EU decision making. France accounts for 15% of the population, with Italy accounting for 13% of the population.

Voting confidence

When they are added to Poland, which accounts for 8% of the EU population, this brings the blocking percentage to 36% and it would be expected that other countries like Hungary will have more confidence to vote against the deal once the big players are confirmed. Ireland accounts for 1.2% of the EU population.

As we went to press on Wednesday evening, the amended safeguards were being discussed between parliament representatives and European Council representatives.

This was expected to be a tense, fraught affair, with some from within the council arguing that the new, amended safeguard clauses have diverged too much from the original proposals agreed by the council.

It is only after agreement is reached between the parliament and council that the vote can go to the Council of Ministers for voting.

This is now scheduled for Friday ahead of EU president Ursula von der Leyen’s planned ceremonial trip to Brazil on Saturday 20 December to attend a Mercosur summit.

Regardless of what the next few days bring in terms of voting results, the deal will still have to pass a final hurdle of EU parliament ratification in spring 2026 if it gets that far.

While many Irish MEPs have outlined their clear rejection of the deal, there are some who have disappointingly indicated that they will vote it through, while more have adopted the safer, more noncommittal approach.

As with all trade deals, there are two sides, and the latest hiccups in relation to final agreement are said to be frustrating the Mercosur side, with sources from inside the European Parliament saying that the South Americans are taking particular issue with the reciprocity clauses.

If the vote doesn’t take place under the Danish presidency, which ends in December 2025, some sources would go as far as saying this could be the death knell of the agreement.

On the other side, Paraguay takes over the leadership of the Mercosur bloc in January 2026 and is said to have been only lukewarm to the deal since its inception.

Cyprus is unlikely to push ahead with ratification under its presidency in the first half of 2026. Ireland is due to take over the presidency in the second half of the year, with some potential big decisions landing on Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s desk in the summer of 2026 if the deal is still in play then.