Speaking at the Coca-Cola plant in Lisburn at the end of last week, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak chose buoyant language as he urged acceptance of the new deal on the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol:

“If we get this right, if we get this framework implemented, we get the executive back up and running, Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position, the unique position in the entire world in having privileged access not just to the UK home market ... but also the European single market. Nobody else has that. No one – only you guys, only here.”

Business groups have responded positively and David Brown, president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union, lauded what he called “...the substantial efforts of both the European Union and the United Kingdom to find joint solutions on the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol.

"From the outset, we have sought on behalf of farm families and the future of the NI agri-food industry, to secure a workable and durable solution that enables free and frictionless trade east-west and north-south.

"It’s extremely positive that progress has now been made on some of the issues that required legislative changes, issues that have been impacting agriculture and creating uncertainty for our members.” Brown noted that technical solutions have still to be found for livestock movements, veterinary medicines, herbicides and livestock feed.

He also mentioned potential problems arising from future divergence in UK versus EU regulations and the impact of future EU legislation on NI agriculture.

He was not alone: the UK departed more than the political structures of the EU after the 2016 referendum.

The choice was made, following the Conservative party’s rejection of Theresa May’s efforts, to split entirely with the EU’s single market and customs union, opting for a trade deal of the type available to any non-EU third country.

May sought to explore intermediate possibilities including better access to the single market and arrangements with the customs union minimising border checks, for the whole of the UK.

Sunak’s glowing assessment of Northern Ireland’s prospects in his Lisburn speech reminded business and farming interests in England, Wales and Scotland that they too could have had better access to European markets, had the Conservatives resisted the temptation to replace her with Boris Johnson and his promise to ‘get Brexit done’.

Frictionless trade

Northern Ireland could end up with, in David Brown’s phrase, ‘free and frictionless trade east-west and north-south’, which means something very close to membership in both the customs union and the EU single market, denied to the rest of the UK.

The deal has elicited a cautious response from the Democratic Unionist Party.

A positive verdict from Jeffrey Donaldson and his colleagues could set the process in motion within weeks while rejection would see a return to the drawing board. But even if the DUP give this deal the thumbs up, that is not the end of the process.

The form of hard Brexit chosen by Boris Johnson’s government confers on the UK the prerogative to diverge from harmonised EU regulatory standards, including product specifications and the food safety regime.

Regulatory divergence would reintroduce barriers to NI’s enjoyment of the best of both worlds

Since Brexit must be seen to confer opportunities for change, ‘taking back control’ and thus delivering on the Leave campaign slogan at the 2016 referendum, there will be pressure for divergence and the adoption of made-in-Britain rules.

Regulatory divergence would reintroduce barriers to NI’s enjoyment of the best of both worlds.

New trade agreements

So would UK success in negotiating new trade agreements outside the EU. The customs union avoids customs checks at Europe’s internal frontiers precisely because the EU has the same tariff deals with everyone, negotiated jointly.

There would be a large hole in the customs wall if, say, product from Asia faced lower tariffs into the UK and free entry into the single market via the Republic.

David Brown mentioned the risk from regulatory divergence but there is a further risk of customs checks on Britain to NI trade if the UK were to succeed, which it has thus far failed to do, in concluding major low-tariff trade deals outside Europe.

The EU has made something of an act of faith that the UK will not be exploiting its freedoms under either heading too vigorously. They will also be aware that Northern Ireland and the border counties of the Republic are endowed with people skilled in ducking and diving around rules and regulations. No exemption at an external EU frontier comparable to what has been offered to NI has ever been negotiated before by the European Commission.

Process

Brexit was never going to be a single disjunctive event, it was always going to be a process, disentangling one of Europe’s biggest countries from almost 50 years of ever-closer integration.

The NI protocol deal, even if accepted all round, will face continuing challenges as that process unfolds.