Any beef that China imports from Australia since 20 June and for the remainder of this year will carry a 55% import tariff.
This is as a result of China introducing a tariff safeguard quota to contain beef imports at the start of this year and it is scheduled to continue until 2028.
Australia is China’s second-largest supplier for imported beef and was allocated a quota for 205,000 tonnes (t) in 2026, which is over 70,000t less than the volume supplied by Australia in 2025.
Not just Australia
While Australia has been the first country to fill the quota it has been allocated, Brazil is also close to having its 1.1m tonne quota for 2026 filled.
Some Brazilian beef exporters have already ceased production for China in the belief that they have sufficient volumes in stock and in transit to fill the reminder of the quota.
It is expected that it will be completed sometime before the end of July and, after that, any beef entering China from Brazil will also carry a 55% tariff.
Implications for the global beef trade
This is the first time that there has been any significant barrier to either Brazil or Australia in supplying beef to China since it became a major beef importer over the past decade.
China is Brazil’s main beef export market, taking just under half its total exports and it also accounts for a similar share of China’s beef imports.
For Australia, the main export market for beef is the US, which took over 450,000t in 2025, with China in second place.
Australia’s options
The Australian cattle price is currently around the equivalent of €4.57/kg for a steer similar to our R3 grade, which is competitive relative to Irish, UK and EU prices.
It has been growing its market share for imported beef in the UK, as it has a large tariff-free quota that it is nowhere close to filling.
This leaves plenty of potential to redirect exports to the UK of cuts that sell in both markets. Additionally, Australia also concluded a trade deal with the EU earlier this year, which created a beef quota with a preferential 7.5% tariff.
This is currently in the ratification phase and once it comes into effect, EU countries will also be a potential market.
US potential for Brazil
Brazil’s beef exporters have been increasing the volume sent to the US over the past couple of years.
United States department of agriculture (USDA) import data up to the middle of June shows that the US has imported 216,000t of beef from Brazil, 12% more than it did in the same period last year.
There is a view in Brazil that it can increase its volumes exported to the US further, though the fact that many Brazilian processors don’t have USDA approval will hamper any rapid expansion.
Of course, with the Mercosur trade deal now in place, Brazil has enhanced access to EU markets at a preferential 7.5% tariff for an additional 99,000t of beef carcase weight equivalent. This is shared with the other Mercosur countries of Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
However, there is the issue with the EU ban on Brazil due to come into effect on 3 September because of antibiotics use and if this is not resolved, it would frustrate Brazil’s export ambitions to the EU.
Ireland has been frustrated in developing China as a market for beef exports. However, while we didn’t trade with it directly so much, the fact that it bought so much beef from major exporting countries meant that China, Australia and Brazil in particular were less focused on the EU and UK than they might otherwise have been.
As a result of the China tariffs, it may look more towards Europe in the second half of the year, which would mean increased competition for Irish beef exports.
Growth in Brazil’s beef exports continues
China’s ‘beef or bust’ diplomacy squeezes Brazilian beef exporters