Brazil exported 23,400t of beef to the European Union in August ahead of the suspension that into effect on 3 September. As Figure 1 shows, this is over 10,000t more than in August 2025 and was an increase of almost 8,000t on the July export figure. Brazil’s beef exports to the EU have been increasing over recent years, notwithstanding a dip between January and June this year. In 2020, Brazil exported 96,856t of beef to the EU, this increased year on year reaching 157,869t by the end of 2025.

With the Mercosur trade deal coming into operation provisionally in May this year, it had been expected that this upward trend would continue in 2026 and beyond. While the EU is small in the context of Brazil’s beef exports, it is a relatively high-value market because it’s primarily a steak meat market. In July this year, Brazil’s exports to the EU averaged $8,450/t (€7,350), the highest value per tonne of all its export markets.

China slump

From Brazil’s perspective the big news from the August data is the slump in the amount of beef exported to China in August to 18,900t, the lowest monthly total this decade apart from when exports were suspended due to BSE. As Figure 2 shows, this is less than one tenth of the volume exported to China in the peak months of September and October 2025. The graph also highlights that the sharp downturn in August followed a sharp reduction in July, when the volume of beef was just over half what was exported in June.

This is the outworking of the new quotas introduced by China for beef imports at the start of this year. Brazil was allocated a quota for 1.1m tonnes which is 500,000t less than the 1.6m tonnes that it exported to China in 2025. As a result, Brazil’s exporters have been aggressively exporting to China in the earlier part of this year and in the first half of 2026, their beef exports to China were 794,000t, which is 24% more than it was in the same period in 2025!

With the quota filled, any additional beef exported by Brazil will carry an extra 55% tariff until the end of the year. This will make Brazilian beef much less competitive in the Chinese market and create an opportunity for other South American countries and New Zealand, all of whom are exporting well below their quota limits so far in 2026.

US growth

If the door for Brazil’s beef exports to China has effectively closed for this year, it has just opened wider to the US, where last month President Trump announced that he was creating a 300,000t tariff-free quota on ground beef for the next three months. While this has caused consternation with US farmers, it is a real opportunity for Brazil to further increase its exports to that market for the remainder of this year.

As Figure 3 shows, Brazil had already been increasing its beef exports to the US ahead of the Trump announcement. There was an hiatus around this time last year when the US president briefly imposed an additional 50% tariff on Brazil, but this was quickly dropped and Brazil had been a strong supplier of beef to help meet the US deficit in production. Before the recent Trump announcement on tariffs, this growth was being achieved despite Brazil paying a 26.4% tariff on its out-of-quota exports to the US, and we can expect to see further growth in the remaining months of this year.

Wider global trade

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter and any disruption to its trade has the potential to have a knock on effect globally. The second largest exporter is Australia and it too has hit its quota ceiling in China, as well as in South Korea, which is their third largest export market after the US and China .

Paying the out-of-quota tariffs will, at a minimum, reduce volumes exported to these countries, though the large Australian quota for the US means that it can, like Brazil, redirect exports there. US Department of Agriculture beef import data confirms that this has been happening, with Australian beef imports to 9 September running 17% ahead of the same period last year at 357,498t.

The other tariff market that Australian beef exporters can develop further is the UK.

UK imports from Australia for the first half of 2026 were 10,395t, more than double the 4,002t imported in the same period last year, but still tiny in the overall context of Australian beef shipments. Australian government beef export data for August this year shows that just 1,175t of beef was exported to the UK which is less than was exported in August last year.

The overall volume of beef exported by Australia has been in decline over the past couple of months, having been at record highs in the first half of this year. Meat and Livestock Australia reported that total exports in August were 122,500t, down 9% compared with August 2025.

Comment – tariffs reshaping global beef trade

In the fist half of 2025 there was much debate about the random nature of US tariff policy, with the return of President Trump to the White House. Despite the noise, the disruptive effect of these was minimal largely because they were often quickly reversed.

This year, his announcement of a 300,000t ground beef tariff-free quota is at total variance with his policy from just over a year ago, but comes at a time when the world’s two biggest exporters are facing a new major tariff barrier in China that was introduced at the start of this year.

For Australia, this is compounded by the fact that it reached its safeguard ceiling in South Korea earlier in than usual, because of record export volumes in the first half of the year.

Given that all of this is happening outside Europe in parts of the world where there are negligible Irish beef exports, it has little immediate impact on Irish beef producers and exporters. However as the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) commented recently on Brazil and China reaching quota limits “intensified competition for alternative destinations, [will be] exerting downward pressure on export prices in both countries”.

If the UK becomes one of these alternative destinations, then it could be an issue for Irish farmers.