This week’s publication of the update to the National Development Plan (NDP) puts the issue of providing extra housing for the country’s growing population at its core.

Looking at the numbers, the update provides for an extra €34bn in spending over the coming five years when compared to what was previously planned for 2026-2030, bringing the total spend to €112.4bn, including €10bn of equity funding provided in the period to support the delivery of large projects in the water, energy and transport sectors.

The NDP says the core ambition of the review is to deliver 300,000 additional homes by 2030 and to boost Ireland’s competitiveness.

That ambition is clearly laid out in the spending provisions outlined for each departmental group in the plan.

The Department of Housing sees its allocation more than double when compared to the 2021-2025 period to €35.96bn, with the Department of Transport’s budget increasing by over €9bn to €22.3bn.

The Department of Agriculture sees one of the smallest allocations increases when compared to the 2021-25 period, increasing by only 15% to €1.625bn (see Table 1).

The NDP outlined the reasons for its focus on housing delivery, saying that Ireland’s population is expected to grow to 6.1m by 2040 which is 250,000 more than was expected when the National Planning Framework (NPF) was first launched in 2018. The population has increased annually by 1.3% well ahead of the 0.8% rate projected in the first NPF.

The NDP also says that there has been significant difficulty when it comes to adding capital stock, noting that projects in critical sectors have faced challenges beyond funding including judicial reviews of successful planning applications, additional environmental consents beyond planning, and labour supply shortages.

These constraints mean that, according the NDP, there is a need to prioritise investment in projects that are most aligned with national priorities, are deliverable, and offer the greatest societal and economic return.

In order to help achieve the target for housing, the plan includes investments in ESB networks and Eirgrid to boost the delivery of upgrades to the country’s electricity supply network. There is also an investment in Uisce Éireann for water services for housing needs as well as for delivery of “large- scale projects” which presumably will include the famous pipeline from the Shannon to Dublin.

Regional development

The NDP says that balanced regional development is a “core tenet” of the plan, with an aim for 50:50 distribution of future growth between the eastern and midland region (including Dublin) and the rest of the country.

It also targets a 50:50 growth distribution between Ireland’s five cities (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford) and the rest of the country. Anyone interested in monitoring how regional developments are progressing can access latest data on projects in their area using the MyProjectIreland website or app.

The plan also restates the Government ambitions for its climate action plan, including the 25% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030 and afforestation of 8,000ha per year – a target that has not been hit since 2010, with only 1,573ha planted in 2024.

The NDP says that: “Public investment alone will not be sufficient to reach these goals and the use of all key policy levers available to Departments to deliver on Ireland’s obligations are required.”

Delivery

As outlined in the NDP, one of the biggest challenges for ambitious plans like this one is delivery.

The non-financial barriers to investment can lead to considerable delays to critical infrastructure projects.

Speaking after the publication of the plan, Ian Talbot, chief executive of Chambers Ireland said: “Our failure to deliver transformative projects is directly impacting the lives of the current generation, with consequences that cannot be delayed until the future.

“Effective delivery is non-negotiable and the real test of the revised plan will be whether it results in measurable progress.

“While the scale is welcome, it must translate into real outcomes without delay.”

To paraphrase that famous estate-agent truism, the updated National Development Plan is about three things: housing, housing and housing.

The publication mentions housing 20 times and repeats the Government target of 300,000 new homes 11 times. There is no doubt that Ireland’s shortage of accommodation has reached crisis levels, and it will be a considerable success should that Government target be met.

However, it has to be noted that there seems to be very little in this plan for farmers or the agrifood industry as a whole. The increase in the allocation to the Department is one of the smallest in the NDP, and once inflation across the period 2021-2026 is taken into account, it looks like a cut.

This does not mean that the rural economy has nothing to gain from the plan. Improved infrastructure should help lift everyone’s standard of living.

There are also risks to the spending plans, outlined the both the NDP and the Summer Statement, coming from outside Ireland.

The country right now is in a very healthy place economically with high employment and strong Government receipts. Should the threat of tariffs, or the implementation of them after August 1, start to have a serious effect on Ireland’s economy, the room for capital spending at the scale outlined this week could quickly evaporate.