Teagasc expects that a 10% year-on-year decline in weanling prices - coupled with higher costs of production - will knock €5,000 off the average suckler farmer’s income relative to the unparalleled good fortunes of 2025.
An average 2026 suckler farm income of €19,000 is forecast in Teagasc’s mid-year outlook for agriculture, down one-fifth on the little over €24,000 that incomes settled at after the high prices of 2025.
Direct prices on suckler farms are shaping up at levels 7% higher than they were last year, while overheads are up 5%.
Net margins on the average farm finishing cattle are expected to fall to “breakeven point” as 2026’s cattle price looks set to fall 8% and with finisher costs to rise in line with spending on suckler farms.
Teagasc forecasts this cost-price squeeze taking 36% or €11,000 off the average suckler income.
A 2026 cattle finisher income of €21,000 is anticipated after last year’s income of €32,798, according to the outlook.
It puts the finished cattle price drop experienced so far this year averaging 2%, but with an 8% lower price expected across the whole year, further beef price pulls could lie in store.
Market movement
Ireland's bullock beef output was down 1.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the equivalent timeframe a year previous, as a 5% bump in carcase weights was unable to fully make up for a 7% fall in the numbers killed.
However, the volume reduction for steer beef is anticipated to be a lower 1% down across the whole of 2026 as supplies of cattle over 24 months look relatively strong.
The overall demand for beef across the EU was noted as having been initially strong in the opening months of 2026, before April onwards brought demand pressure.
EU beef supplies are to stay tight for the remainder of 2026, with output anticipated to fall by 2.6% over the year as a whole.
The beef demand dynamics for the remainder of 2026 are to be dictated by the wider economic fortunes of the EU and the UK, the outlook states.
The UK market was also referenced as an area where beef farmers from both Ireland and the UK itself are witnessing increased competition from New Zealand and Australian product.
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