This Sunday Kerry are underdogs in an All-Ireland football final against a county that has two titles in its entire history. The Kingdom have 36. There’s something wrong there. The strong case for Donegal this weekend is based on their brilliance against Dublin and while this is justified, semi-final form doesn’t always hold true in a final. If anything, the team that falls into a final has an advantage as they can and usually do lift themselves in the showpiece.

We can only imagine the atmosphere these past few weeks up in the northwest. This is Donegal’s third appearance in Croke Park in September and the hype will be added to by the achievement of their minors, who will be appearing in the curtain-raiser for the first time. Handy for tickets, that.

The wind is certainly in Donegal’s sails. They’re in this final as undefeated Ulster champions and have some serious scalps in their form line. They also looked to have improved with every outing, hitting the highest of notes for Dublin. That is where the possible hole in Donegal lies. They had to peak for the defending All-Ireland champions and did so with some aplomb. Can they do it again three weeks later?

These are heady times for Donegal and Jim McGuinness’s undoubted powers of management will be tested trying to keeping a lid on all of it. Of course, they have been there before in 2012 and handled the hoopla, but that was against Mayo, a county with its own pressures. Kerry don’t really do All-Ireland final pressures; they are bred for such days. That’s what awaits Donegal: Kerry’s tried-and-tested ability.

This is a fascinating game and that’s all thanks to the cult of Jim McGuinness. What will he do with Donaghy? How will he cope with James O’Donoghue? Of course, Jim isn’t playing any more, so he will be trusting in his troops. They’ll have their hands full. The smart tacticians will anticipate a man in front of Donaghy and a man behind, robbing the totem of a clean catch when the Kingdom can shift the ball high in his direction. Eamon Fitzmaurice will figure that out too.

Where Mayo suffered was in their fear of Donaghy, so evident in the fact that they let him actually win the ball, one of his catches coming from a ball that bounced into his chest 10 yards from the Mayo goal. That will not be part of the Donegal plan.

Star, as he is affectionately known in Kerry, is an outstanding basketball player and watch out for him climbing high in the air and not trying to catch the ball on Sunday. Instead he will be trying to offset the Donegal defenders by looking to deflect the ball into the path of a fellow forward. That will be the man who does the damage.

James O’Donoghue was a bit of a novice back in 2012 when Donegal accounted for a struggling Kerry, winning by 1-12 to 1-10 in the quarter-final. That Kerry side never got out of the blocks that year, after losing an All-Ireland final by a point the year before. They only beat Tyrone in Killarney, having lost in Munster to Cork. They limped to the last eight and Donegal, on their way to the All-Ireland, needed a late Karl Lacey point to ensure victory.

From that team, Kerry have lost an Ó Sé, Eoin Brosnan, Paul Galvin and the Gooch. Most other counties would hibernate after such manpower shortages but Kerry are Kerry for a reason and James O’Donoghue has been the forward of the year, stepping into Gooch’s shoes.

He lasted 57 minutes back in 2012 and saw Paddy McGrath for some of that experience and I wouldn’t be surprised if the two were in close quarters again on Sunday. This will be a key duel and, as usual, McGrath will have help in front of him. Donaghy and O’Donoghue are the two men that Donegal supporters will be concentrating on but McGuinness will have a few more in his sights: Declan O’Sullivan is due a big game; Paul Geaney likewise.

Donegal’s method of defence starts in attack where forwards and midfielders are under strict instructions to slow down opposition whenever and wherever they win the ball. This gives valuable seconds for the middle third to funnel back and close out space. A fired-up Kerry will test the system better than most because they can instantly transform defence into attack with the rarest of tactics: the long kick pass.

Both teams will have their moments and periods of dominance. For Donegal to win, theirs must last a good deal longer than Kerry’s, because the Kingdom will score with more economy – it’s what they do.

Donegal were clinical against Dublin when goal opportunities presented themselves and that needs to happen again. They have encouragement because Mayo created plenty of goal chances, only taking four against the Kingdom. While Christy Toye is mainly used as an impact substitute, he came on early against Dublin and he is a player that does think goal and once the opportunity presents itself he can make that killer pass. Kerry can answer with Barry John Keane.

In a game like this, it is the killer pass that could make the difference, the one that is held and then dispatched, as against the one that is dropped, misplayed, overhit and missed. Margins will be that tight.

This will be a chess match and a tense one at that. Kerry’s natural football against the strict Donegal game plan. The Kingdom who have had their issues with physical northern teams in finals; Donegal who are not really used to days like this.

The head says Kerry. This is based on years of experience of watching them win All-Irelands like this one. All the talk has been elsewhere, all the focus on Dublin, Mayo, matches in Limerick, referees and now Donegal. They won’t be sucked into the likes of Joe Brolly’s baiting. The Kingdom are bred for this.

Good luck to Donegal, they are the fairy tale. The GAA romantics will rightly want to see them win their third All-Ireland title as well as their first minor. And most of us neutrals will feel the same way. But the cute Kerryman will be quietly confident. They really are bred for this.