The land market is a peculiar one and 2018 was a perfect example of this. While auctions for the most part have been successful, private treaty sales and general sentiment have not been as positive.

The land market has been inconsistent with both prices and demand showing great variation – even in areas of close proximity.

Increased costs in 2018 certainly had an effect on land.

The fodder shortage and extreme weather conditions have not helped either. While the third quarter has seen a pickup in activity, the first two quarters seemed to have struggled. To quantify sentiment is almost impossible.

The Land Report (to be published in March 2019) will provide the answers on the amount of holdings not sold during 2018, but the last two years show that around 55% of land offered to the market remained unsold.

Early indications would suggest that this will be similar, if not greater, in 2018.

Statistically, the other side of the land market is doing well.

Public auctions have seen a 70% sell rate either under the hammer or after auction during September and the early part of October.

The last two years show that around 55% of land offered to the market was unsold

Prices have been higher than private treaty sales and there seems to be good appetite for them in a general sense.

But have auctions been giving a false sense of how the land market is performing as a whole? Auctions typically account for under 30% of land sales each year, with private treaty making up the majority.

Back in June, Irish Country Living reported the average price at auction stood at over €11,000/ac in 2018. But putting this in context, this is not surprising.

The majority of auctions take place in Leinster where land prices are general higher. Connacht and Ulster, where prices are not as strong, see far fewer auctions.

In addition, the presence of businesspeople in the market is becoming more prominent. Extra financial muscle is present at auctions, resulting in stronger sales.

Finally, when two or more farmers get stuck in at auction, they may push the price that bit further than they would for a private treaty sale.

Because there are so many factors effecting the sale and demand of land, it is impossible to draw one single conclusion as to how the market has been. In fact, to quote John Allen Paulos, “uncertainty is the only certainty there is”.

Even speaking with auctioneers there are various sentiments, with each having their own experience of the year gone by.

We spoke with a number of auctioneers nationwide to get their opinion on 2018 as a whole.

Tom Cox

Thomas J Cox and Co Auctioneers,

Connacht

“It has been a good year for land sales here. Quite a number of drystock farmers are buying land in our area and you often see farmers buying for their children who may be away. The rental market is also strong around here. Personally, I would prefer the auction route if possible. It is the most efficient way of getting the deal done.”

James Butler

Savills,

Nationwide

“The market has been inconsistent, in that there have been some really strong results and on the other hand there are farms that have not found a buyer or have found a buyer at a reduced price. There has been a lack of consistency even within the same county. You could have a piece of land that sells very well and another that struggles to find a buyer.”

Clive Kavanagh

Jordan Town and Country Estate Agents,

Leinster

“This year has been tough going. The key is having a farmer outside your ditch that is interested in the land. If you have two of these you will get a premium. The quality of land is also vital. At the moment we are seeing reduced activity from beef and tillage farmers.”

John Fitzgerald

Dougan Fitzgerald,

Munster

“It was a tough year for farmers, but there is plenty of activity. Farmers are still buying land around here and still seem able to get finance to do so. There is genuine demand for good-quality, smaller holdings that farmers can use as outfarms or heifer-rearing plots.”

Gerry Coffey

Gerry Coffey Auctioneer and Valuer,

Connacht

“I have sold farms in 2018 that would have been put on the market in 2017, but I haven’t taken on as much land in 2018. Uncertainty is the big word. The fear of Brexit and commodity prices are effecting it all at the moment. I have found the demand for leasing land is still very strong. At the moment this may be the only option for some farmers.”

John Hodnett

Hodnett and Forde,

Munster

“The first quarter of the year we found land sales to be very quiet due to the poor weather condition from the previous months. It picked up during the summer and we saw plenty of activity in the third quarter. Smaller bits of land are selling well, but having said that the 6% stamp duty is having an effect.”

Thomas Potterton

REA T.E Potterton,

Leinster

“It’s a hard market to call. A lot depends on who is next door. To get in on a good price you need neighbouring farmers interested. Lending is also an issue. The lending criteria for farmers seems to be tougher. You really need all the i’s dotted and t’s crossed. It seems farmers are finding it hard to meet this criteria.”

Richard Ryan

GVM Limerick,

Munster

“It has been a steady year. By no means fantastic, but it has been okay. The summer was flat with the weather conditions, but it has certainly picked up during the autumn and we got a few private treaty sales over the line. Also dairy farmers are not in as bad a place as people think. Look, if you have the right land in the right place it will sell.”

Interestingly, there is a strong market for non-residential, good-quality land parcels of various sizes.

Smaller, manageable holdings that don’t require too much finance are sought after by farmers, while larger holdings over 100 acres are also changing hands.

The last two months have seen a lot of larger farms on the shelves.

The country homes market has been difficult this year.

Large homes with farmland have found the going tough.