The latest European Commission sheep production figures shows the severity of the decline in sheepmeat production across Europe. Production for the first seven months of 2025 fell by 9.2% when compared to the corresponding period in 2024, which in itself was also lower than in 2023.

Table 1 details the volume of sheepmeat produced and the percentage change on 2024 levels.

As can be seen production fell in every significant sheepmeat producing nation in the European Union.

The sheep sector in Belgium continues to be decimated by the bluetongue virus with any fading hope of a recovery in numbers pretty much out of the question in the short-term future.

The country only produced 3,500t of sheepmeat from January to July equating to a fall of 46.5% on 2024 levels.

The virus has also had a significant bearing on production in Germany with production of approximately 10,800t running over 37% lower year-on-year.

These reductions in nations with a smaller flock size have significant consequences as it threatens the processing capacity in many regions.

The powerhouses of Europe in terms of sheep production – Spain, Romania and France – are all also witnessing continued decline in flock numbers.

While the 14.1% fall in production in Ireland has been well documented and since intensified. Italy was the only country to record growth in production volumes but some reports point towards this being underpinned by more ewes being culled at farm level which if accurate will have long term consequences.

Production and consumption

The sheep flock present in countries in the European Union fell by over 5m head over the last decade with 2m alone of this reduction coming in 2023 and influenced by harsh weather conditions in spring 2023.

The volume of sheepmeat produced in 2025 is forecast by DG Agri to fall by over 10,000t to just over a half a million tonnes – see Table 2.

The volume of sheepmeat produced and used in the EU over the last decade has fallen by over 50,000t.

To put this in context it will likely exceed the total volume of sheepmeat exported from Ireland in 2025.

There has been an increase recorded in the volume of animals exported live in the first half of the year.

At 1.22m head there were 159,000 fewer lambs exported live but exports of adult sheep increased from 320,000 head to 568,000 head for the first half of the year.

A significant volume of exports coincided with the Islamic religious festivals of Ramadan and Eid al-Adha with Romania the main supplier of exports to North African nations and Turkey.

Import and exports

Despite lower production levels exports of sheepmeat from the EU is running 7% higher for the first half of 2025. Table 3 shows the destination of export volumes with a sharp jump in export volumes to the Algerian market.

Exports to the UK reduced which is not surprising given consumption has been under pressure and competing with lower priced imports from Australia and New Zealand. Exports to Morocco halved and a factor contributing to this decline was the country temporarily suspending the traditional Eid al-Adha celebrations due to prolonged drought and challenging economic conditions.

EU sheepmeat imports were also up significantly, rising by 19%, or over 16,000t, to reach 101,384. Imports from the UK are up 20% with the industry targeting higher value or premium markets and importing lower-priced alternatives. The volume imported from New Zealand increased 15% and while it is still unlikely to go anywhere near filling its tariff-free quota it is a substantial increase. While imports from Australia are climbing all the time.

Global picture

China continues to dominate sheepmeat import volumes, accounting for imports of in excess of 220,000t up to June. This was followed by the EU as explained above and the US which has imported in the region of 75,000t of sheepmeat.

On the export side Australia continues to dominate export volumes which were in the region of 375,000. This is between 15,000t and 20,000t higher than in 2024. Exports from New Zealand on to the global market are broadly on a par to 2024 at 235,00t.