Grain was up this week, as a new US report came out with predictions for the year and talks of an El Nino weather event this year likely put some concern in the markets.
El Nino occurs every few years where warm sea surface temperatures in the central to east Pacific causes warmer conditions and can often result in drier weather, more likely in the southern hemisphere.
For perspective, Matif wheat for December hit €215.50/t on 7 May, but recovered and climbed to €225.75/t on 12 May and €226.75/t on Wednesday afternoon this week.
WASDE report
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report came out on Tuesday 12 May.
It contained the first forecasts for the 2026/2027 marketing year and noted that the figures are tentative as planting continues in some parts and has yet to begin in others.
US wheat production is forecast down 424m bushels from last year to 1.561m bushels.
Global wheat production is forecast at 819.1m tonnes, down from 843.8m tonnes last season.
The report said the largest reductions are from the US, Europe, Argentina and Australia. Consumption is forecast slightly lower at 823.2m tonnes.
The US corn crop is projected at 16bn bushels, down 6% from 12 months ago.
The report said: “World corn production for 2026/27 is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.295bn tonnes, down 17.3m tonnes from the prior year, but still the second highest on record.”
It continued: “World corn consumption is expected to rise less than one percent to a record 1.315 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production by 19.4 million tons, following the modest surplus seen a year ago.”
Corn will be a crop to watch as it has a huge impact on the price of wheat and barley.
Fertiliser prices and oil costs affect planted areas in large growing areas such as Brazil and are something to keep an eye on.
Native prices
Dairygold offered growers €205/t for green wheat for harvest 2026 this week, €195/t for green barley and €485/t for oilseed rape.
There is little demand for wheat at present.
There are also reports of a nice bit of old-crop wheat stored in Europe with no buyers.
Irish grain lies in sheds still in some parts. As a result, dried spot wheat and barley are priced around the same at €225/t, but with little wheat moving, it’s hard to know where the price really is.
Maize is at about €235/t for now or November, while wheat for November is also reported at €235/t, with barley €10/t under.
Soya into the country is at about €440/t to €450/t.