Total cereal production in the EU for 2023/2024, assuming average weather conditions this year, could rise by 8.4% on the year previous to reach 287.9m tonnes.
Soft wheat production is forecast at 130.9m tonnes, barley at 54.2m tonnes and maize at 65.0m tonnes.
Lower cereal prices in 2023/24 are due to stabilise animal feed demand at a level of 156.5m tonnes, while food demand could grow slightly to 59.6m tonnes, in line with an EU population growth, the European Commission said in its short-term outlook.
“With a higher production, EU cereal exports could increase by 8% (to 48m tonnes). At the same time, EU imports are forecast to decrease by 25% to 26m tonnes,” it added.
This is also due to an expected recovery in EU maize production.
Winter crops
The area under winter cereals this year is estimated to increase on last year. The Commission expects the winter wheat area to remain almost unchanged at 20.8m ha, while the winter barley area should increase to 5.0m ha, a 1.5% increase.
“After a 10% drop last year, rye area could recover partially (+4.6%). Durum wheat and triticale areas, however, are estimated to decrease by more than 2.5% (to 2.1m and 2.5m ha respectively),” it added.
For maize, a prolonged winter drought (and so reduced water availability for summer irrigation) in many EU producing regions and lower prices could incentivise some farmers to switch to sunflower, resulting in a projected reduction of planted maize area of 4% year-on-year (to 8.5m ha).