On Tuesday this week, it will have been 10 years since the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU).
The referendum result was close, with just 52% voting to leave and 48% to remain, but the impact was decisive, as the UK was breaking away from a union it had been part of since 1973.
The UK government had been campaigning to remain in the EU and didn’t have any plan for losing the vote.
When the vote was announced, then-prime minister David Cameron resigned immediately and UK politics entered a period of turmoil, from which it still hasn’t properly emerged.
Exit process
With the UK outside the EU, a trade deal of some sort became essential or else Irish agri-food exporters would have faced penal tariffs on sales to the UK.
It would also have been a disaster for cross-border trade on the island of Ireland, where milk and lambs go south for processing and pigs go the opposite direction.
A tariff-free trade deal was cobbled together that came into effect in 2021, but a legacy remains of sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) controls, which means certification with each transaction.
A bespoke arrangement was put in place that enabled Northern Ireland to participate in both the UK and EU single markets and while this has plenty of flaws, it has functioned to the extent that it has enabled trade to continue - though, of course, not as smoothly as before.
Much has changed
Over the past decade, much has changed in addition to the UK leaving the EU. A global pandemic arrived in 2020, with an impact lasting for the next two years, by which time Russia had invaded Ukraine.
As well as the human cost, this had severe economic repercussions across Europe and caused a refocus on European defence.
This has increased with the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, as he has made it clear that the US will no longer do the heavy lifting with NATO.
All of these events have served to push European countries closer together - and that includes the UK.
Change of government
A change of government in the UK in 2024 brought with it a policy of more positive alignment with the EU, though no commitment to requesting a return to EU membership or even the single market and/or customs union.
Discussions have been ongoing on what this closer arrangement might look like, with the one tangible of a veterinary agreement being an obvious starting point. This is currently in negotiation.
More recently, around the leadership in the ruling Labour party, there has been discussion on a more formal relationship with the EU, but that remains very fluid. Even if there was a desire on the part of the UK to rejoin, it would be a protracted negotiation with no guarantee on the outcome.
Brexit was never going to be good for Ireland or the UK for that matter, so, from the outset, the best that could be hoped for was damage limitation. That has largely been achieved with the tariff- and quota-free trade deal.
This enables product travel either way without tariffs, but there is an added bureaucracy to comply with SPS or veterinary rules.
This has effectively stopped micro businesses trading, but they are manageable for larger exporters.
UK pursuit of trade deals in the immediate aftermath of Brexit coming into effect will have long-term repercussions, which are just starting to be felt over the past year.
Australia and New Zealand now have huge access to the UK market for beef and sheepmeat, which adds a new layer of competition for Irish exports to Britain.
The UK has also potential to enter a trade deal with Mercosur countries, which would increase competition even further.
The bottom line for farmers across the island of Ireland is that there is no good Brexit, but it could have been worse.
Editorial: a decade since Brexit with repercussions starting to bite