Ireland is on course to have zero biomethane used for heating and cooling by 2055 under current policies, according to new analysis from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).

The findings are contained in the SEAI’s new Comprehensive Assessment of the Potential for Efficient Heating and Cooling in Ireland, which warns that existing measures will not be sufficient to stimulate the development of a domestic biomethane industry.

The report states that significant additional policy interventions will be required to scale up production over the coming decades. It doesn’t model the impact of the incoming Renewable Heat Obligation, the impact of which remains uncertain.

Emissions

Heating currently accounts for more than one-third of Ireland’s total energy demand and almost one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the country’s most significant climate and energy security challenges. Around 90% of Ireland’s heat demand continues to be met by fossil fuels, while approximately 80% relies on imported energy sources.

The SEAI assessment highlights both the scale of the challenge and the opportunities available to reduce Ireland’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. It states that major action will be required to cut heating-related emissions by almost 90% by 2050.

Technology

According to the report, a rapid transition to low-carbon heating technologies, including electrification, district heating, renewable gases and waste heat recovery, could significantly reduce emissions under a high-ambition scenario.

The assessment identifies electrification as the central pillar of Ireland’s future heating system, with electricity and ambient heat projected to supply up to 72% of final heat demand by 2055. Renewable fuels such as biomethane, hydrogen and bioliquids are expected to play more targeted roles in sectors that are harder to electrify.

District heating

The report also points to district heating as a major strategic opportunity, particularly in urban areas and across commercial and public buildings.

Detailed modelling found that around 4.6 terawatt hours (TWh) of building heat demand could be supplied more cost-effectively through district heating networks than through individual heat pumps alone. The SEAI said this potential could increase further with stronger policy support.

However, the report warns that affordability will be critical to ensuring a just transition for households and businesses. It highlights the need for targeted grants, reforms to electricity pricing, long-term investment supports and clearer policy signals to help consumers transition to low-carbon heating technologies with confidence.