On Monday, I was glad to be asked to chair the Brexit session at the excellent three-day conference held in Croke Park, organised by the British Society of Animal Science and the Irish Agricultural Research Forum.

The Brexit conclusions performed a useful function in that they jerked us out of whatever complacency may have been developing. Maybe it will all turn out all right on the day but when we now see all kinds of companies work on the assumption that there will not be a smooth flow of trade between Ireland and Britain, then we should at least have contingency plans in place.

With three speakers – Kevin Hanrahan from Teagasc, Myles Patton from AFRI in Northern Ireland and Steve Thompson from Scotland – we got a good overview. Two key points struck me:

  • 1 Fifty per cent of our beef exports go to the UK and without the UK as a market, the rest of the EU will have a beef surplus – it’s hard to see where our extra 250,000t could go within Europe.
  • 2 If the UK chooses to unilaterally liberalise its beef market and get rid of all tariffs, then the price of beef on the UK market, according to the calculations, would drop by 42% and the UK suckler herd drop by 37%. Already, the Scottish speaker, Steve Thompson, pointed out 35% of UK beef farmers are losing money after their Single Farm Payment.

    • Irish dairying is not nearly as exposed, the sector is much more diversified in its markets but we are still looking at a possible reduction of 20% in dairy farmer incomes.

    The need for a planned diversification in our beef markets is real and the announced opening up of direct Ireland to mainland Europe shipping routes should be facilitated with extra State or EU regional aid.

    This is one way that Brussels and Dublin could sensibly help as well as speeding up the opening of the Chinese market that has been so important for dairy and pork.

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